Oscar predictions: Who will win at the 2025 Academy Awards – and who should
This is indicative of how bonkers this Oscar season has been: One of the best picture contenders begins with a series of strip club lap dances, another ends with a monstrous amount of blood being sprayed everywhere.
Just like the movies up for Sunday's top prize, the road to the 97th Academy Awards (live on ABC and Hulu, 7 p.m. EST/4 PST) has been anything but boring. After months of film festivals, Oscar punditry and glitzy awards shows, there's no clear front-runner yet and the lead acting races are still up in the air, which is honestly kind of nice. A year ago, we all figured out that "Oppenheimer" was going to win the night. This time, it could be a bunch of catty pope wannabes, a Hungarian architect, a couple of singing witches, or even Bob Dylan.
And what's the best way to end an unpredictable, somewhat toxic Oscar cycle? By fearlessly predicting all the major categories, of course.
Best picture
"I'm Still Here"
Will win: "Conclave"
Should win: "The Substance"
"Anora" was starting to look like a true Cinderella story, winning best film out of the Directors Guild and Producers Guild of America awards ceremonies. That is, until "Conclave" scored a major victory for best cast at last weekend's Screen Actors Guild Awards − important because thespians are the largest voting bloc in the Academy. The last film to win PGA and DGA but not Oscar was "1917," which lost to SAG winner "Parasite" in 2020. We're thinking repeat: "Anora" still is a safe bet but "Conclave" winning the BAFTA for best film leans toward a victory for the popes. But really, we're just rooting for a "Substance" shocker and all those "Monstro Elisasue holding an Oscar" memes Monday morning.
Best actress
Cynthia Erivo, "Wicked"
Karla Sofía Gascón, "Emilia Pérez"
Mikey Madison, "Anora"
Demi Moore, "The Substance"
Fernanda Torres, "I'm Still Here"
Will win/should win: Moore
The love for "Anora" and a BAFTA best actress honor give Madison a puncher's chance, but this has been Moore's Oscar season. All of the nominees are first-timers – and a win would give Erivo an EGOT – but the "Substance" star not only shines in a wonderfully bizarre role, Moore has a 40-year career to stand behind. Along with the kudos, she's been winning hearts and minds with her acceptance speeches, most significantly her rousing "popcorn actress" moment at the Golden Globes. She's had blockbusters; now it's time for Moore to get her flowers.
Best actor
Adrien Brody, "The Brutalist"
Timothée Chalamet, "A Complete Unknown"
Colman Domingo, "Sing Sing"
Ralph Fiennes, "Conclave"
Sebastian Stan, "The Apprentice"
Will win: Chalamet
Should win: Domingo
It appeared early on that this was Brody's to lose after an early Golden Globe win. However, between "The Brutalist" not becoming an "Oppenheimer"-esque powerhouse and Chalamet winning at SAG, the young "Unknown" star has an excellent shot to beat Brody on the scoreboard and in the record book (as the youngest best actor winner ever). The odds are also in Chalamet's favor: Six of the last seven SAG winners also won Oscars. He's certainly deserving, as good an onscreen Bob Dylan as you could imagine doing all his own performing, yet Domingo digs so deep in "Sing Sing" playing an incarcerated thespian that it's a joy to watch him work. He'll take home Oscar one day, just not this year.
Best supporting actress
Monica Barbaro, "A Complete Unknown"
Ariana Grande, "Wicked"
Felicity Jones, "The Brutalist"
Isabella Rossellini, "Conclave"
Zoe Saldaña, "Emilia Pérez"
Will win/should win: Saldaña
Grande was supposed to have been a more, ahem, popular choice this Oscar season. The "Wicked" wunderkind just hasn't given Saldaña much of a fight, though, with the "Emilia Pérez" standout running the table. All the various "Emilia" controversies and backlash haven't derailed her one bit, and that's a testament to her performance. As the lawyer/consigliere to a Mexican drug lord who secretly undergoes gender confirmation surgery, the Marvel and "Avatar" star sings, dances and showcases a new level of her acting talent.
Best supporting actor
Yura Borisov, "Anora"
Kieran Culkin, "A Real Pain"
Edward Norton, "A Complete Unknown"
Guy Pearce, "The Brutalist"
Jeremy Strong, "The Apprentice"
Will win: Culkin
Should win: Borisov
Barring some unforeseen and monumental upset, Culkin will be raising an Oscar in his hand on Sunday. (Good news, Kieran: It weighs less than that SAG trophy.) He does a phenomenal job in "A Real Pain," though his brand of lovable puckishness does follow him everywhere, from acceptance speeches to his Emmy-winning role on "Succession." If we had a ballot, Borisov would be the pick simply for being awesome and giving us the type of character we haven't seen a ton: a quietly charismatic, scene-stealing henchman with a heart of gold.
Best director
Sean Baker, "Anora"
Brady Corbet, "The Brutalist"
James Mangold, "A Complete Unknown"
Jacques Audiard, "Emilia Pérez"
Coralie Fargeat, "The Substance"
Will win: Baker
Should win: Corbet
Don't worry, "Anora" faithful, you're likely not leaving Sunday night empty-handed. Only eight times since 1948 has the DGA winner missed out on an Oscar, the most recent being Sam Mendes ("1917") in 2020. And since "Conclave" filmmaker Edward Berger isn't even in the Academy's mix, it's an easy call for Baker. That said, the best director probably should go to the best movie. With what Corbet pulls off in the monumental "Brutalist," a movie where even the intermission title card is a part of the narrative, his not winning is a snub that'll be talked about years down the line.