Maps of Ukraine counteroffensive and Russian defenses show advances, battle lines

Ukraine launched a counteroffensive against Russia's invasion earlier this summer with high hopes, but some experts have been skeptical that Ukraine will achieve its goals due to limited progress. Others, such as Ambassador John Herbst, senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center, a Washington, D.C., think tank, have a more positive view of Ukraine's efforts.

"The offensive has gone pretty much the way I anticipated. I've been saying since March that given what we are sending Ukraine by way of weapons, the best we could expect would be modest Ukrainian gains, which I'd define as several square hundred kilometers liberated. And, in fact, by the end of July, Ukraine had liberated over 300 square kilometers (186 square miles). And now it's gotta be triple or quadruple that. Maybe even more.

"We saw a lot of hand-wringing from both commentators and administration officials on background, going back to the middle of August, in the New York Times, the Financial Times, the Washington Post, and elsewhere, about how the offensive is not living up to its expectations. That's nonsense.

"I can't speak for people who had unrealistic expectations, to begin with, but given our refusal to send things that our Army, our Air Force, and our Navy would demand to overcome entrenched lines, things like F-16s, ATACMS (a long-range missile system), massive de-mining equipment, how in the world could we have expected a huge breakthrough?"

Cold weather will present additional challenges as conditions worsen over the next few weeks. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy arrived in Washington on Thursday morning aiming to secure more money and military equipment.

Here's a look at the places Ukrainian troops has advanced and the Russian defenses that are designed to slow their progress:

Lines of defense

In preparation for Ukraine's counteroffensive, Russia spent months fortifying the nearly 600-mile-long front across the territory it occupied last year. It constructed a three-layered defense with each line approximately 6-12 miles behind the one in front, according to the U.K.'s Ministry of Defense. Russian fortifications in Ukraine are the most extensive defensive works in Europe since World War II, according to an analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington, D.C., think tank. 

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Fox holes, hand-dug trenches, and pillboxes are backed by vast minefields with a mix of anti-tank and anti-personnel mines, according to an article by Jack Watling, a land-warfare expert at the Royal United Services Institute. A Ukrainian official told CNN that there are three to five mines per 10 square feet. There are also anti-tank ditches and miles-long rows of concrete anti-tank pyramids known as dragon’s teeth.

Ukraine's advances 

Ukraine began its attack on Russia's first lines in early June, according to the Institute for the Study of War. The counter-offensive began in at least three directions. On June 11, Ukrainian forces liberated four villages in the south of the Donetsk region. On Aug. 28, Ukrainian forces penetrated the first line of Russia's southern defenses in the Zaporizhzhia region, liberating the village of Robotyne and bringing them closer to the city of Tokmak, a rail and transport hub.

Herbst says that at the time officials were calling into question the success of Ukraine's advances, troops had not gotten far from where they were in late July. "Since then they've gone a good bit farther. On one side, the main road, so to speak, to the south. They're 10, 15 kilometers (6.2, 9.3 miles) north of Tokmak. And if they get to Tokmak or a little bit south, they will be able, with HIMARS, to seriously complicate Russian ability to supply their troops in southern mainland Ukraine and in Crimea. And that will be very important."

Russian forces have likely reinforced their defenses around Tokmak, adding additional checkpoints, ‘hedgehog’ anti-tank defenses and digging new trenches in the area, according to the U.K.'s Ministry of Defense.

Thirty miles south of Tokmak lies the coastal city of Melitopol, and reaching it would bring Russia's rail and road supply routes for the occupied south and Crimea within range of Ukraine's artillery.

There has also been fighting near Bakhmut after Russian forces captured the city in May following a 10-month battle that reduced it to rubble. On Sept. 15, the Ukrainian forces secured the villages of Klishchiivka and Andriivka bringing them within 5 miles of Bakhmut, according to the U.K.'s Ministry of Defense.

Herbst says that "in the Northeast, they have two lines north and south of Bakmut, which are now east of the city, which means that the city could be encircled. And despite what we heard from anonymous U.S. generals that Ukraine was wrong to divide their forces, it's precisely that flexibility which opens opportunities for gains at, you might say, tolerable casualty rates."

Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar said that Ukraine had regained 19 square miles of land around Bakhmut and over 100 square miles in the south since the start of the counteroffensive.

Crimea

Throughout the counteroffensive, Ukraine has been striking Crimea and has hit Russian warships and missile launchers.

On July 17, Ukraine attacked the Kerch Strait bridge, which connects the occupied peninsula to Russia. The bridge partially collapsed after reports of an explosion.

On Aug. 23, at Olenivka Ukrainian forces managed to destroy an S-400, one of Russia's most modern air defense systems. On Sept. 13, Ukraine struck a ship-repair base in the port city of Sevastopol damaging two warships and injuring 24 people, according to Russian authorities. Russia’s defense ministry claimed 10 missiles were fired at the facility. Ukraine hit another S-400 launcher near Yevpatoria, the next day – less than a month after destroying the first one.

Friday morning, a missile strike damaged the headquarters of Russia's Black Sea fleet in Crimea, according to the Russian defense ministry.

What's next?

Ukraine has just six weeks before colder conditions could hinder its counteroffensive, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley told the BBC. In an interview with CBS’s “60 Minutes" Zelenskyy said “We need to liberate our territory as much as possible. Forget about the weather and the like. In places that we can’t get through in an armored vehicle, let’s fly. If we can’t fly, let’s send drones. We mustn’t give Putin a break.”

The bottom line, according to Herbst? "We got some more bad news today, no ATACMS. Not a surprise, I'm sorry to say. Bottom line, it's conceivable there could be a significant breakthrough, but we can't count on it and we shouldn't count on it, again, because we haven't armed them to maximize the chances of such a success. And keep in mind that if they go no farther than they have today, their performance was a hell of a lot better than the Russian offensive, which ended in Bakmut in early to midspring."

Contributing: Francesca Chambers, Tom Vanden Brook.