Odds say today's NFL schedule filled with close games. Power rankings say: Not so much.
On the NFL's Week 7 schedule, nine of the 13 games' point spreads are 3.5 points or lower as of Sunday morning. In this week's power rankings, there's a gap of at least nine spots between three of those opponents.
So are the oddsmakers wrong, are we overestimating or underestimating some teams, or is there just that much parity throughout the league?
Certainly fans would expect only a few points to separate the two teams in this week's Sunday Night Football game. The Philadelphia Eagles and Miami Dolphins, who face off on 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC, are ranked fourth and sixth, respectively, in Paste BN's Week 7 power rankings.
But then there is the No. 7 Jacksonville Jaguars who were 2.5-point underdogs in their game Thursday night against the No. 18 New Orleans Saints. The Jaguars won by a touchdown.
The most games with 3-point spreads or lower this year
Half the teams were favored by 3 points or less in weeks 1 and 4 this season, based on the final spreads collected by Pro Football Reference. As of Friday afternoon, nearly 70% of the Week 7 point spreads are 3 points or less. The Cleveland Browns-Indianapolis Colts line moved up to 3.5 during the weekend.
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Week 7 games with narrow point spreads and wide power ranking margins
In a few games this week, the odds and power rankings don't seem to square – especially Thursday night's Jaguars-Saints match up. The 5-2 Jaguars now have a four-game winning streak while the 3-4 Saints have dropped two in a row. Perhaps Thursday's game set the direction for the weekend ahead?
11. Cleveland Browns at 26. Indianapolis Colts: Sure, their records are close, but their trajectories aren't – especially after Browns toppled the formerly unbeaten 49ers while the Colts lost to the Jaguars by 17 points. Cleveland's stingy defense has given up just 1,002 yards, the fewest through five games in 52 years, and now the Colts are without rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson for the rest of the season.
20. Las Vegas Raiders at 29. Chicago Bears: After blowing out the Washington Commanders, the Bears gave the Minnesota Vikings just their second win of the season in Week 6. The Bears will have Tyson Bagent at quarterback in place of Justin Fields against the Raiders who are on a two-game winning streak.
Week 7 games that appear more like a field goal margin
On the other end of the spectrum, three games pair teams within four spots of each other in the Paste BN power rankings while betting sites are just giving a field goal or less to the underdog.
23. Washington Commanders vs. 27. New York Giants: How is a .500 team just a field-goal favorite over a one-win team on a four-game losing streak? Both defenses have struggled, giving up nearly 30 points a game, but the Giants offense has struggled more. Their offense hasn't scored a touchdown since Week 3, and Giants' quarterback Daniel Jones may be out.
9. Pittsburgh Steelers vs. 13. Los Angeles Rams: The Steelers aren't scoring many points per game (15.8), but they're making them count, including a 17-10 win over the Baltimore Ravens before the Steelers' bye week. The return of WR Diontae Johnson may help spark their offense. For the Rams' offense, WR Cooper Kupp has returned to form and taken away some touches from breakout rookie WR Puka Nacua.
NFL Week 7 games, odds and TV schedule
The searchable list below shows each upcoming scheduled and unscheduled matchup. For example, if you just want to see the Kansas City Chiefs' remaining schedule, just type "Chiefs" into the search bar. Or, if you'd like to see the Week 9 games, just type WK 9.
Compare NFL power rankings for Week 7 and rest of 2023 season
Click on a logo below to see the changes in a single team's power ranking this season. Click on additional logos to see how they compare.
Contributing: Nate Davis