Convention bump? Trump's odds of winning in 2024 fell while Harris' rose
Offshore bettors think it's likely Republican nominee Donald Trump will win the 2024 presidential election following the Republican National Convention. But the likelihood has fallen since the assassination attempt last week in Butler County, Pennsylvania.
During that same week, the odds on Polymarket, a crypto-trading platform, jumped for Vice President Kamala Harris to replace President Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee. Now that Biden has said he will not seek reelection and endorsed Harris, her odds of winning the Democratic nomination jumped 30 percentage points Sunday.
As of Sunday at 4 p.m. EDT, the betting – which legally can't be done in the U.S. – put the likelihood of a Trump victory at 63%. His prospects rose as high as 72% on Monday ahead of the opening day of Republican National Convention.
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How the odds of Trump winning the 2024 election have changed
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"This election cycle is already shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable in history," David Rosenberg, vice president of strategy for Polymarket said in an email. "(Our) forecasts are helping people understand where this race is going in real time, including as events without much precedent unfold, as we saw this weekend."
The gap between Trump and Biden on Polymarket opened in mid-May – just before they agreed to two presidential debates. It widened further in late June when Biden struggled in the first debate. By July 10, three other betting sites listed Trump as a heavy favorite to win the presidency.
Presidential election betting odds
How much significance we should place on betting markets and where they are moving about four months before Election Day is up for debate. A few points to consider:
◾ Gambling data may skew toward Trump: Data from Resonate, an AI-powered consumer data and intelligence company, show voters who will likely vote for Trump in 2024 are 34% more likely than the average American to gamble or go to casinos.
◾ Markets accurately predicted vice presidential choice: Ohio Senator JD Vance was the prohibitive favorite on Polymarket to be Trump's running mate on Monday morning – just hours before he was officially announced.
◾ Chance of winning doesn't necessarily equate to margin of victory: While betting markets suggest Trump's chances of winning have risen significantly, recent polling of registered voters doesn't show a similar chasm between Trump and Biden.
Who is likely to be the Democratic nominee
Since Thursday, bettors on Polymarket had taken into account the growing number of Democrats saying Biden should step aside. Odds of Biden remaining the Democratic presidential nominee fell as low as 13% on July 18 while Harris' odds shot up to 62%.
Thursday was only on the fourth day since Biden stumbled in the June debate that the bookmaker's odds placed Harris ahead of Biden as the most likely Democratic nominee. She's remained the favorite since.
Contributing: Susan Page, Rachel Barber