What are the odds Trump will win? 2024 election betting odds, state by state
This story was updated to add new information.
Offshore bettors think seven states with less than 100 electoral college votes between are the most likely to determine the presidential election.
Based on bets made on Polymarket, a crypto trading platform, Vice President Kamala Harris had an edge of just 14 electoral college votes over former President Donald Trump as of Wednesday. For several hours on Thursday, two states – Pennsylvania and Nevada – with 25 votes combined had a 50% win probability for both candidates.
It should come as little surprise then that Polymarket bets suggest Harris' overall probability of winning the election is just two percentage points higher than Trump's as of Sept. 27 at 11 a.m. EDT. Presidential election betting can't be done legally in the United States.
Who has better odds to win now: How the VP debate nudged the odds for Harris and Trump
Harris' and Trump's election odds in every state
Offshore bettors believe Harris and Trump have at least an 86% chance of winning a combined 43 states and Washington, D.C., in the Nov. 5 election.
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Real Clear Politics, a nonpartisan election site, considers the seven states toss-ups where Trump or Harris have less than a 70% probability of winning. Their polling also adds to the toss-up mix Minnesota and one of Nebraska's five Electoral College votes, which bettors predict will go to Harris.
2024 polling averages give Harris the edge in recent weeks
Like the betting odds, polling averages synthesized by Real Clear Politics have risen about a percentage point in Harris' favor after the Sept. 10 debate. Trump's polling has been largely unchanged.
Viewed from the betting market's perspective, it's clear why both campaigns are spending so much time and money in Pennsylvania for its 19 electoral college votes. Even the betting money is divided there.
Where bettors think the 538 Electoral College votes will go
More than 4 of every 5 Electoral College votes are firmly in either candidate's camp, according to betting on Polymarket. When those 445 votes are allocated to either Trump or Harris, you see which the states will likely teeter between the candidates until November.
According to Polymarket betting as of Friday at 11 a.m. EDT, Pennsylvania has a 51% chance of going to for Harris, and Nevada has a 52% chance. The day before, Trump's and Harris' odds were tied at 50%.
How Harris' and Trump's odds of winning the 2024 presidential election changed
The likelihood that Harris will win has swung as much as 8 percentage points in the days since Harris and Trump debated, according to Polymarket. Odds that they'll debate again have fallen 5 percentage points in the past week to 25%.
It's no wonder that Harris has risen into the front-runner position since the debate, when new betting pushed up her chances of winning in Pennsylvania and Nevada. Her odds in both states have since retreated.
When is the vice presidential debate?
With about six weeks left before Election Day, next week could move betting markets again when Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz debates Republican Sen. JD Vance of Ohio. CBS News will host the debate Tuesday.
Betting odds didn't predict Trump's 2016 victory
Though the numbers have turned in Harris' favor, Trump remains only a percentage point away. That gap is much smaller than he has faced in betting markets during his two previous presidential runs, according to Betfair.
Betfair odds had Hillary Clinton with an 81% likelihood of winning on Election Day in 2016. The betting favorite has lost only twice since 1866, according to the Conversation, a nonprofit news organization. The only other time bettors failed to predict the winner: 1948, when Democrat Harry Truman beat 8-to-1 odds to defeat Republican Thomas Dewey.
Contributing: James Powel