Hurricane season is not over yet: Why season winds mean Florida should stay on alert

Fall has arrived, and although October is not often associated with significant hurricane landfalls like the summer months, it is still considered the peak of hurricane season. October has historically produced dangerous and deadly storms, mostly affecting one state, Florida.

After Helene made landfall and recovery efforts were underway, forecasters turned their attention to the Caribbean Sea, where another tropical disturbance had developed in a similar location to Hurricane Helene. That disturbance could become the 12th named storm of the season.

16 hurricanes have developed in October, five hurricanes have struck the U.S., since 2013.

Where have Atlantic named storms made landfall in October?

Since 1950, 19 hurricanes have made a U.S. landfall in October, not including Sandy since it did not officially make landfall as a tropical cyclone.10 of which occurred in Florida

Where do storms typically form in October?

By October, the formation zones of tropical storms and hurricanes shift westward toward the western Caribbean Sea, eastern Gulf of Mexico and far western Atlantic Ocean. Storms can develop in these warm waters of the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. In the Gulf, low-pressure troughs during early winter can pick up these storms and propel them towards Florida.

The jet stream and steering hurricanes in October

As the seasons change, so do the steering currents which guide storms. Cooler air starts to move south, bringing the mid-latitude westerly flow, also known as the jet stream. This westerly flow directs weather systems from west to east. Therefore, storms that form in the Caribbean and move into the Gulf are often influenced by this westerly flow and redirected eastward. This makes Louisiana and Florida particularly vulnerable because the shape of the state can dip further south than the jet stream this time of year.

How many storms have formed this season?

So far there has been 11 named storms, with Tropical Storm Kirk forming on September 30.

The end of hurricane season

Hurricane seasons quiet down as they head into November, especially for the U.S. There are just seven known U.S. hurricanes that made landfall as named storms in November, dating back to 1861.

• 1861-Unnamed: Landfall near Marco Island as a Tropical storm, Nov. 1
• 1935-Unnamed: Landfall near Everglades City as a Cat. 1, Nov. 5
• 1985-Kate: Landfall near Panama City as Cat. 2, Nov. 21
• 1994-Gordon: Landfall near Cape Coral as a tropical storm, Nov. 16
• 1998-Mitch: Landfall near Naples as a Tropical storm, Nov. 5
• 2020-Eta: Landfall near Cedar Key as Tropical storm, Nov. 12
• 2022-Nicole: Landfall near Fort Pierce as a Cat. 1, Nov. 10

Sources: Paste BN Network reporting and research; NOAA