Who has better odds to win the election, Harris or Trump? The VP debate nudged them.
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After Tuesday night's vice presidential debate, offshore bettors think former President Donald Trump's campaign raised its odds of winning the 2024 presidential race.
As of Saturday at 8 a.m. ET, Trump's odds of winning were slightly higher than Vice President Harris' odds, according to Polymarket, a crypto trading platform. Betfair Exchange, the biggest U.K. peer-to-peer betting platform, said the odds narrowly flipped to a Trump win after the debate. Presidential election betting can't be done legally in the U.S.
Perhaps bettors were waiting to see overnight reactions to the debate between Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and Ohio Sen. JD Vance. Odds were little changed during the debate, which commentators have called "cordial." The odds moved in Trump's favor afterward.
What are Trump's odds of winning: Here's why betting markets think they just got better
How betting odds changed during the presidential and vice presidential debates
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The odds of either candidate winning are now the closest they've been since they flipped in Harris' favor after the presidential debate Sept. 10, according to Polymarket data. Interestingly, Trump's and Harris' odds of winning peaked just ahead of their respective national conventions.
How Harris' and Trump's odds of winning the 2024 presidential election changed
Before Tuesday night's debate, nationwide polling aggregated by Real Clear Politics showed Harris with a 2-percentage-point lead over Trump. The Harris campaign has largely maintained that lead since the presidential debate.
Harris maintains lead in national polling
Since 2012, first presidential debates had the biggest impact on polling and betting odds, based on data from Betfair and Real Clear Politics. The way the public viewed the debates' outcome has generally snowballed in the following days. The reaction to vice presidential debates has been more muted.
Odds have changed less after vice presidential debates
How accurate have election odds been in past presidential elections?
The betting favorite has lost only twice since 1866, according to the Conversation, a nonprofit news organization. One of those long shots was Trump in 2016. Even on Election Day, bettors gave Trump just a 17% chance of defeating Hillary Clinton, according to Betfair's historical data.
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Contributing: James Powel