Who's more likely to turn out? Women or men? What does it mean for Harris vs. Trump?
It hasn’t always been this way. Before 1980, men consistently voted in higher proportions than women in presidential election years.
But since then, women have been the more reliable voter.
And if that trend continues – as some signs suggest it will − Kamala Harris will benefit this election.
That’s because of another trend: the gap between how men and women view issues and the candidates has gotten wider and more powerful.
In a mid-October Paste BN/Suffolk University national poll, women decisively backed Harris, 53% to 36%. That was a mirror image of men's overwhelming support for Donald Trump, 53% to 37%. If those margins hold until Election Day, it would be the biggest disparity since a gender gap emerged more than four decades ago, in 1980.
In that election year that first sent Ronald Reagan to the White House, a slightly higher share of women (59.4%) than men (59.1%) voted. That was the first time in at least the past 60 years that women outperformed men in a presidential election year, according to Census Data dating from 1964.
Women have continued to do vote more reliably than men and early signs indicate this year will be no different.
Women accounted for 53% of early voters nationwide, ahead of men at 44%, as of Nov. 1, according to TargetSmart, a Democratic-aligned firm that tracks early voting data, Paste BN reported.
The Harris campaign has banked on winning female voters by large numbers, boosted by the 2022 Supreme Court decision overturning the constitutional right to an abortion.
Women were the driving force behind a late shift toward Harris in Iowa, according to a Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll that rocked the political world when it showed Harris leading Trump in that red state.
To overcome Harris' dominance with women voters, Trump has targeted an oft-overlooked voting bloc: young men who lack college degrees.
Mega-podcaster Joe Rogan endorsed Trump on the eve of the election, highlighting Trump’s appeal to the “bro vote.”
But Trump needs to motivate that demographic to show up in greater proportions than it has in recent elections.
How presidential voter turnouts compare
In the most recent presidential election, about 10 million more women voted than men in 2020, according to the Center for American Women in Politics.
More than 79 million Americans have voted early as of Monday afternoon, according to the University of Florida's Election Project, which tracks early voting numbers. More than 100 million Americans voted early in 2020, Paste BN reported.
Where women turned out to vote in 2022
Women "showed up to vote in overwhelming numbers" in the non-presidential election of 2022, according to the League of Women Voters. That's the same year the Supreme Court voted to overturn Roe v. Wade, the federal right to abortion care, the LWV said.
More women are registering to vote than men
Polls show Harris is performing significantly better among women while Trump is more popular with men. A Paste BN/Suffolk University poll taken Oct. 14 to 18 found Harris leading nationally 53%-36% with female voters and Trump leading 53%-37% with male voters.
CONTRIBUTING Joey Garrison, Paste BN
SOURCE Paste BN Network reporting and research; Census Bureau; League of Women Voters; Center for American Women in Politics