Rafael means busy hurricane season is looking at a rare US landfall in November

Tropical Storm Rafael formed in the Caribbean on Monday afternoon and is expected to go through "rapid intensification," the National Hurricane Center says. It is set to become a hurricane as it moves toward the Gulf of Mexico, a rarity in November. Wind shear, dry air and slightly cooler water temps will weaken it as it nears the northern Gulf by the end of the week.

Rafael is the 17th named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, according to Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach. An average year sees 14 storms.

Named storms in November

Eight named storms have developed in November since 2013. Of those eight, only four saw landfalls, and only two made a U.S. landfall.

How rare are hurricane landfalls in November in the US?

Of the 287 hurricanes since 1851 that made landfall in the mainland U.S. in NOAA's database, only four did so in November. Three made landfall in Florida and one in North Carolina.

Where do storms typically form in November?

Most storms form in the Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico and move north and northeast as an eastward-moving trough usually carries away the storm. Depending on the circumstances, this setup often brings storms close to the Florida peninsula. This is the situation in October as well, although the number of storms is significantly lower in November.

Tropical systems become less frequent in November because of less favorable atmospheric conditions. Additionally, storms that do develop find it more challenging to make landfall in the U.S. because cold fronts become more common during this time. These cold fronts can steer storms away from the East Coast or keep them confined to the Caribbean.

How many storms have formed this season?

There have been 17 named storms this hurricane season. Ten developed into hurricanes, and three of those became major hurricanes

Where is Rafael?

Though Nov. 30 marks the official end of hurricane season, we might not be finished yet. This season may rank "among the busiest on record," according to NOAA's August forecast. Tropical activity typically slows down after mid-October, but storms could continue to develop into December this year.

Contributing: Gabe Hauari and Doyle Rice

Source: Paste BN Network reporting and research; NOAA