Did 2025 NFL mock draft experts get it right? How accurate were their first-round picks

Jim Sergent Paste BN

Mock drafts nailed several early picks of the 2025 NFL draft during the first round at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin. After those picks, though, the experts' speculation fell off significantly.

Few draft watchers were surprised when the Tennessee Titans selected quarterback Cam Ward with the No. 1 pick. But then came the blockbuster trade where the Jacksonville Jaguars swapped the fifth pick with the Cleveland Browns to take Travis Hunter, who most expected would be the second pick of the draft.

How did the rest of the expectations pan out?

We collected 30 mock drafts published a week before the draft from a wide range of organizations that used a variety of methods from typical research and reporting to AI and mock draft simulators. Below, you'll see how those predictions matched with the first-round reality.

2025 NFL draft tracker: First-round picks

The consensus picks of the NFL draft experts were perfect about the order of draft's first seven picks:

Unable to view our graphics? Click here to see them.

About half of the 30 mock drafts we collected expected that the Carolina Panthers would select Linebacker Jalon Walker from Georgia. When that guess didn't pan out, the misses started to cascade down the board. Only one mock draft (by Paste BN Sports and the Paste BN Network experts) guessed the Atlanta Falcons would take Walker at No. 15.

After the eighth pick, the level of consensus fell off considerably among the mock drafts because few agreed how teams view quarterback Shedeur Sanders as a prospect. A handful of mock drafts predicted he would be picked second by the Cleveland Browns. A third guessed he'd go ninth to the New Orleans Saints. Others suggest he'll fall to the Pittsburgh Steelers with the 21st pick. We'll see tonight if Sanders will be picked in the second or third round.

How NFL mock drafts compared to reality later in the first round

Here's how the 30 mock draft predictions matched up with the reality of the rest of Thursday night's draft. Note: A half dozen of the players were top contenders for more than one team.

While the Seattle Seahawks' pick of Grey Zabel was the only completely accurate pick, the mock drafters correctly assessed the positions teams planned to target. For example, the Indianapolis Colts drafted a tight end from the Big Ten, but he ended up being Tyler Warren instead of Colston Loveland who the Bears picked at No. 10.

When and where to watch the NFL draft 2025

The 2025 NFL Draft continues tonight at 7 p.m. ET at Lambeau Field. The remaining TV schedule:

Friday, April 25: Rounds 2-3: 7 p.m. on NFL Network, ESPN2, ABC (Watch FREE on Fubo)
Saturday, April 26: Rounds 4-7: noon on NFL Network, ESPN, ABC (Watch FREE on Fubo)

The 2025 mock drafts we combined

In the 30 mock drafts used for this story, some organizations had multiple drafts but either their authors or methods to create the mock drafts were different:

◾ April 15:Paste BN using ChatGPT | Milwaukee Journal Sentinel

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