Summer 2025: Nearly half of the US expected to have abnormally hot, dry conditions
Scientists say the La Niña weather pattern has ended and the new pattern could lead to drought conditions in some regions.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recently declared that after three months of La Niña conditions, we've entered for the summer and early winter a seasonal pattern called "ENSO-neutral." What does that mean?
Basically, our weather is in a neutral state. Because of the neutral conditions, global airflow isn't as predictable, according to the NOAA. Forecasters prefer the presence of La Niña or El Niño because both can provide constant patterns in the worldwide weather, enabling seasonal forecasts and outlooks.
Neutral weather conditions bring uncertain weather risks
An ENSO-neutral pattern can bring drier-than-normal weather, or drought conditions could persist in certain regions. For example, drought may persist or increase in some areas, such as the Southwest and portions of the southern Plains according to the Climate Prediction Center.
Farmers’ Almanac predicts heat will be in full force by July, with much of the nation sweltering with above- to high-above-average temperatures. More longtime, high-temperature records may be broken this year.
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ENSO-neutral conditions have also been in place during some catastrophic hurricane seasons.
Typically, ENSO-neutral can promote Atlantic hurricanes, as does La Niña, because of lower wind shear over the Atlantic, meteorologist Andy Hazelton told Paste BN. "Sometimes, if it's 'warm neutral' – warmer than usual in the equatorial Pacific but not quite warm enough to officially classify as El Niño – it can lower activity a little bit."
Above-average temperatures in the West
The Climate Prediction Center released its forecast for the summer months – June, July and August – and expects temperatures will rise well above averages throughout the contiguous United States.
A large portion of the West, from northern New Mexico up the Rocky Mountain Range to the West Coast, has the highest probability of extensive heat, as well as several Gulf coastal states and the Northeast.
High heat and dry conditions could raise fire risks
In the United States, fires burned almost 9 million acres last year, according to the National Interagency Fire Center. Certain weather conditions, such as heat, drought, wind and lightning, can help start or spread fires. But human activity is responsible for about 90% of all wildfires in the nation.
Half the country will see drier conditions
The transition from spring to summer will create conditions favorable for a spike in wildfires because of drier conditions, particularly in the Southwest, South Central, northern Rockies, and most of the Northwest.
“Roughly half of the country is dealing with abnormally dry or drought conditions right now,” wrote Paul Pastelok, AccuWeather's lead long-range expert. "Nearly 9% of the nation is in an extreme or exceptional drought – significantly higher than at this time last year."
"The good news is, we're chipping away at drought conditions across the northern mid-Atlantic states, so the fire risk is starting to decrease,” Pastelok said. “Until things really green up completely, we still have a fire risk in this region."
CONTRIBUTING Doyle Rice, Elissa Robinson and Jim Sergent
SOURCE National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Drought Monitor, AccuWeather and Paste BN research
(This story was updated to add new information.)