Key weather factors that could influence the 2025 hurricane season

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season has begun. Forecasters within National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service predict a 60% chance of an above-normal season.

Several factors may play a role in making this hurricane season more active than usual: warmer-than-average ocean temperatures, weak wind shear, high West African Monsoon activity, and a neutral phase in the El Niño–Southern Oscillation.

Hurricane season forecasts: How many storms are expected?

The NOAA is predicting 13 to 19 total named storms. Of those, six to 10 are forecast to become hurricanes, including three to five major hurricanes.

Experts from Colorado State University said in their initial forecast released in early April that an active Atlantic hurricane season is likely. They predicted as many as 17 storms and said nine will become hurricanes, including four major hurricanes.

What are the Atlantic hurricane names for 2025?

Key factors that could influence hurricane season

The season is expected to be above normal because of a confluence of factors, including ENSO-neutral conditions, warmer-than-average ocean temperatures, forecasts for weak wind shear, and the potential for higher activity from the West African Monsoon, a primary starting point for Atlantic hurricanes. All of these elements tend to favor tropical storm formation. 

ENSO-neutral conditions

The natural climate pattern is collectively known as ENSO, or the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. ENSO-neutral refers to periods when neither El Niño nor La Niña is present. These periods often coincide with the transition between El Niño and La Niña events. When the Pacific Ocean is neither unusually warm nor unusually cold, it's considered ENSO-neutral

Neutral years are going to have less wind shear than El Niño years but more shear than La Niña years. "However, historically, the spread of observed Atlantic hurricane activity in neutral years is large. We have had some very quiet seasons such as 2013 (two hurricanes) but also some extremely busy seasons such as 2005 (15 hurricanes)," said Phil Klotzbach, senior research scientist at Colorado State University.

Warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures

One factor in storm development is the sea surface temperature in regions where tropical cyclones are likely to form and develop. Hurricanes get their energy from warm ocean water, so when the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf are unusually warm, as it has been in recent years, it provides more fuel for storms to form and intensify.

Forecasts for weak wind shear

Hurricanes need towering cloud tops to build the heat machines that make the most powerful storms. Strong winds high up in the atmosphere − 30,000 feet or higher − blowing eastward across the Atlantic can shear off the tops of systems and prevent hurricanes from stacking up those cloud formations.

When El Niño is occurring, hurricane activity often decreases because of strong vertical wind shear. In contrast, La Niña creates a more favorable environment for hurricanes to form because of weaker wind shear and increased instability. During ENSO-neutral conditions, the wind shear over the Atlantic Ocean is generally at average levels, which has a less significant impact on hurricane activity compared with the effects of El Niño and La Niña.

Potential for higher activity from the West African Monsoon

The West African Monsoon is a season characterized by strong winds and heavy rainfall in western Africa. During this period, tropical waves can develop. As these waves move over the Atlantic Ocean, they may intensify into tropical cyclones (hurricanes) if ocean water temperatures are warm enough and the wind shear is low.

This hurricane season could see a northward shift of the West African Monsoon, which can seed some of the strongest and longest-lived Atlantic storms.

Saharan dust

Saharan dust is not a dominant factor for an entire season, but it can play a role in suppressing the development of storms. Strong winds lift these dust plumes and carry them west across the Atlantic, reaching areas where hurricanes typically form. This dust reflects sunlight, causing heat to be sent back into the atmosphere. As a result, less sunlight reaches the ocean surface, which leads to cooler water temperatures.

How can you prepare for hurricane season?

• Check with your local government to see if you live in an evacuation zone.
• Have a plan for where you would go if you need to evacuate, and share that plan with friends and loved ones. Plan to travel only as far as you need to.
• Write a family emergency plan with your family and close friends to decide how you would contact one another in an emergency, where you will go and what you will do. Keep copies on your phone and in your emergency supplies, and share it with your family.
• Put together a basic emergency kit with water and shelf-stable foods for up to a week, flashlights, backup batteries, a first-aid kit and moist towelettes.
• Review your insurance policies to ensure you have coverage, including flood coverage.
• Store insurance policies, photos of your home and its contents and other important papers in a safe place and in electronic files, and share copies with family members.
• For more suggestions, visit NOAA's hurricane preparations page.

CONTRIBUTING Doyle Rice

SOURCE Paste BN Network reporting and research; NOAA; Colorado State University