Russia continues record-setting attacks on Ukraine after Trump call, US arms cutoff
Russian strikes on Ukrainian cities continue to escalate dramatically — the latest record-setting aerial attack occurred on July 4th when Moscow launched more than 500 drones and missiles hours after U.S. President Donald Trump spoke to Russia's Vladimir Putin, and days after the United States cut off arms shipments promised to Ukraine. An estimated 1000 Ukrainian civilians have been killed since January.
Some of the largest waves of attacks came after Ukraine's Operation Spiderweb on June 1, a stealthy cross-border drone mission which reportedly inflicted more damage on Russia than any in the three years since the invasion began. But Russia's attacks were already increasing in intensity and have continued to since President Donald Trump's inauguration, despite attempts to negotiate an end to the ongoing war. Here's a closer look at the Russian air campaign based on data from the Institute for the Study of War:
Christina Harward, a distinguished Russia analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, told Paste BN that while Russia been conducting near-nightly strikes against Ukraine for a long time, in recent months the size of the attacks has changed.
"Russia began launching upwards of 100 Shahed drones in a one-night strike series in late 2024," said Harward. "In recent months, however, we have seen Russia break its own records over and over. Now Russia is often launching hundreds of drones at a time and have even launched close to 500 drones in recent days."
Russian attacks have killed an estimated 1000 civilians in 2025, according to remarks by James Ford, the deputy head of mission at the U.K. delegation to the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe. A U.N. report states that 968 civilians were killed and 4,807 were injured between the start of December 2024 and the end of May 2025, a 37% increase compared with the same period last year.
Why such a massive increase in attacks?
Harward, the Russia analyst, told Paste BN that a major contributing factor to the increase in intensity and scale of the Russian strikes is the country's successful scaling of its drones and missile production.
Harward noted that Russia launched one of its largest attacks between May 31 and June 1 – the night before Ukraine's secret operation. "This timing demonstrates that Russia was already on its path to intensifying its strikes against Ukraine even before Operation Spiderweb."
John Herbst, former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine and senior director at the Atlantic Council, mentioned two other factors for this in an interview with Paste BN. "First, Putin is unable to achieve his objectives via his soldiers," said Herbst, pointing to Russia's inability to take the city of Sumy and a failure to expel Ukrainians from Russian territory, "Reason two is they're able to get away with it."
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on June 24 that Russia had launched over 28,000 Shahed-type drones since 2022, with around 10% of the total fired since the beginning of June.
Harward said that Russia relies heavily on Shahed drones – which it initially received from Iran, but are now largely produced inside Russia – and increasingly on cheaply produced drones intended to distract and overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses.
The Institute for the Study of War has noted some indications that Russia has been incorporating cheaper decoy drones, some reportedly made of plywood, into attacks to waste Ukrainian air defense ammunition. Newer Shahed models may also be incorporating thermal cameras and artificial intelligence, increasing their precision.
"Ukrainian forces have proven quite effective at shooting down the drones and cruise missiles, but ballistic missiles are harder to intercept. On top of this, Ukraine has been suffering from shortages of U.S.-provided Patriot air defense systems and missiles – the only system that Ukraine possesses that has proven effective at countering these Russian ballistic missiles," said Harward.
Harward told Paste BN that Russia appears to be increasingly striking civilian areas, particularly in Kyiv. "We have seen a handful of Russian adaptations that point to an effort to inflict more civilian casualties on Ukrainians, such as the deployment of Shahed drones that have capsules with chemical weapons and delayed detonation mechanisms," said Harward, "These tactics are likely aimed at causing harm to civilians even after Ukrainian forces are successful in shooting down the drones."
Timur Tkachenko, head of Kyiv's military administration, said that a total of 285 drones and 65 missiles were fired against the capital since the beginning of June, killing 42 people and injuring 234, according to NTV, a German news company.
On June 24, Russia launched a missile attack on Dnipro, striking civilian infrastructure and a passenger train, killing at least 21 people and injuring more than 300 others, according to a telegram post by Serhiy Lysak, governor of the Dnipropetrovsk region.
According to Harward, Russia will target different areas all over Ukraine using an array of missiles and drones, forcing Kyiv to defend huge swaths of territory and make tough decisions about which cities to protect with limited Patriot systems. During the June 28 to 29 attack, which was the largest to date, various strikes were directed at cities of various sizes across Ukraine.
According to a post by the Air Force Command of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Russia attacked with 537 air attack vehicles, including 477 Shahed UAVs and simulator drones from various directions, Dagger and Iskander ballistic missiles from Crimea, cruise missiles from the Black Sea, and guided anti-aircraft missiles from Kursk. The post said that 475 targets were destroyed.
What to expect next in the conflict
Herbst, the former ambassador, told Paste BN that despite steps taken toward a firmer approach with Putin, Trump's administration has refused to make Russia pay a price for obstructing peace. At a news conference following the NATO summit, Trump signaled that he would consider selling Patriot missiles to Ukraine. Trump also described a call during which he told Putin that he didn't want his help with Iran – he wanted him to settle his war with Ukraine.
According to Herbst, the recent Pentagon pause on weapons deliveries to Ukraine "directly undermines Trump's initiative to achieve a stable peace in Ukraine and the steps he took in that direction as recently as the NATO summit."
Herbst said that he would be "surprised if that was a decision taken by the White House because it does cut against all recent steps taken by the president." Nevertheless, Herbst said Russia would welcome the news. "They think that's another gift from Trump."
Harward said the U.S. pause on weapons shipments will likely accelerate Russian gains on the battlefield, as was seen during a suspension of deliveries from 2023 to 2024. "This latest U.S. suspension of aid will only reinforce Putin's long-held belief that time is on Russia's side and that Russia can win a war of attrition if Russia can outlast the West's will to support Ukraine," said Harward. "This is one of Putin's driving assumptions and why Russia has been delaying negotiations and preparing for a protracted war."
A few days after the largest Russian attack, a post by the general staff of the armed forces of Ukraine announced a drone attack against Russia's Kupol military plant. The facility, which manufactures drones, is based in the city of Izhevsk, more than 620 miles from the frontline, making the strike one of Ukraine's deepest into Russian territory.
Harward thinks it is likely that Russia will launch further ballistic missiles in the coming days, knowing that Ukraine's Patriot interceptor missile stocks – reportedly impacted by the shipment pause – may be dwindling.
CONTRIBUTING: Jennifer Borresen
This is a developing story and may be updated.
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