Forecasters predict an above-average hurricane season as Atlantic waters heat up.
The Atlantic hurricane season has now entered its historically busiest and most destructive months, and weather experts say we can expect three more major hurricanes before the end of the season in November.
Outlooks released this week by Colorado State University also predict there will be 16 named storms and eight hurricanes in the next three months.
Hurricane season updated forecast: How many storms are expected?
Federal forecasters are predicting 13-18 total named storms for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. Of those, five to nine are forecast to become hurricanes, including two to five major hurricanes, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said.
Experts from Colorado State University released their final forecast for the season on Aug. 6. They predict a slightly above-average season of eight hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
In its July update, CSU's forecast called for 16 named storms, eight hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. That's a downgrade from its forecasts in April and June. In its latest update, the institution maintains its July forecast.
NOAA predicted in May that the 2025 season would be active, and, according to its latest outlook, little has changed in its forecast.
Sea surface temperatures warming
The tropical Atlantic has warmed faster than normal over the past few weeks, according to federal data and maps.
"When the waters in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea are warmer than normal, it tends to favor an above-average season, since a hurricane’s fuel source is warm ocean water," the forecast said. "Additionally, a warm Atlantic leads to lower atmospheric pressure and a more unstable atmosphere. Both conditions favor hurricane formation."
ENSO-neutral conditions
The natural climate pattern is collectively known as ENSO, or the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. ENSO-neutral refers to periods when neither El Niño nor La Niña is present. These periods often coincide with the transition between El Niño and La Niña events. When water temperatures in the upper layer of the Pacific Ocean are neither unusually warm nor unusually cold, it's considered ENSO-neutral.
The ramp-up to a busy hurricane season
Aug. 6-19 typically marks the beginning of the ramp-up for Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. The primary formation area for major hurricanes in early to mid-August is in the tropical Atlantic east of the Lesser Antilles.
2025 named storms
As August begins, there are still three months remaining in hurricane season. So far, there have been four tropical storms: Andrea, Barry, Chantal and Dexter.
How can you prepare for hurricane season?
◾Check with your local government to see if you live in an evacuation zone.
◾Have a plan for where you would go if you need to evacuate, and share that plan with friends and loved ones. Plan to travel only as far as you need to.
◾Write a family emergency plan with your family and close friends to decide how you would contact one another in an emergency, where you will go and what you will do. Keep copies on your phone and in your emergency supplies, and share them with your family.
◾Put together a basic emergency kit with water and shelf-stable foods for up to a week, flashlights, backup batteries, a first-aid kit and moist towelettes.
◾Review your insurance policies to ensure you have coverage, including flood coverage.
◾Store insurance policies, photos of your home and its contents and other important papers in a safe place and electronic files, and share copies with family members.
◾For more suggestions, visit NOAA's hurricane preparations page.
CONTRIBUTING Doyle Rice
SOURCE Paste BN Network reporting and research; NOAA; Colorado State University; National Weather Service National Hurricane Center