As summer winds to an end, let the Oscar buzz begin
And the Oscar for best summer movie goes to … ?
Moviegoers voted with their dollars, anointing reboots like Mad Max: Fury Road and originals like the biopic Straight Outta Compton. But will Oscar still be paying attention come February?
Technically, there's more room for big budget flicks since the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences opened up the best-picture category to 10 films in 2009. (It has since tweaked the rules, and now up to 10 films are allowed in, based on a percentage of votes received.) But historically it has been a challenge to retain Oscar heat from the summer months, thanks to more traditional "awards films" jostling for attention in the fall.
So do billion-dollar hits like Jurassic World stand a chance? "It's a super-crowded year," says IMDb.com senior film editor Keith Simanton, noting how many worthy films, from The Revenant to Joy, are already whipping up early Oscar buzz. "If you look at the fall and the winter, there are so many films that will overwhelm or overshadow what we're looking at now."
But there are always exceptions. "At this time last year, not only had Boyhood come out, we had already noted it would be an Oscar front-runner," says awards website GoldDerby.com founder Tom O'Neil.
In 2009, the war indie The Hurt Locker was in it for the long haul, opening in July and going on to win six Academy Awards, including best picture (a prize the low-budget film wrestled from Avatar). In 2011, The Help managed a similar feat after opening in August. The racially charged film received four Oscar nominations, and Octavia Spencer won a gold statue for best supporting actress.
So where's our Boyhood?
"This summer is a lot like last summer, (meaning) there are very few things that are going to have an impact on the nominations or even the short list," Simanton says. The surest bet so far was a colorful, feel-everything hit: "Inside Out could be in (the best-picture race) by virtue of its size," O'Neil says.
But it's not just box office approval that films need — it's fourth-quarter campaign funding. Studios routinely send DVDs of what they consider their "awards-worthy" films to academy members every fall and follow up by holding screenings and Q&As with their actors.
That all costs money. Hyping the films inside the industry town is "really where the Oscars are won and lost in the campaign," O'Neil says. Who are the contenders this year?
The shoo-ins
Inside Out
Inside Out is destined to rule the best-animation category (and is positioned for a win). But will the animated film be able to break into the best-picture race? It wouldn't be the first time. Toy Story 3 managed to category-jump in 2011, as did Up in 2010. "If you look at Up, or even to a certain extent Toy Story 3, messages about old age and youth and serious messages about life really resonated with the academy," O'Neil says.
It doesn't hurt that Inside Out was adored almost universally by critics. "It had a profound message that raises it above not just other animated movies but above most other movies this year, and puts it in the Oscar arena," O'Neil says.
That's not all: There's a high chance that Amy Poehler, who voices Joy, could walk away with a Golden Globe nomination as well. "Amy Poehler did such a tremendous job voicing joy in the film," says Fandango.com managing editor Erik Davis.
The fighting chances
Mad Max: Fury Road
Experts are split on whether Max Max will find enough gas to make it into the Oscar race. With the Toronto, New York and Venice film festivals preparing to unveil serious awards bait, Simanton calls the chances "pretty slim right now." But Davis says the action epic is the summer film he's championing the most. "It's the only movie that's come out in the last few years that's going to be a classic a couple decades from now," he says.
What's more certain is that Mad Max will be showered with below-the-line nominations, including special effects and costuming. Though many would like to see George Miller squeeze into the best-director category, it doesn't look good. "The Oscars are generous about having more than five nominees for best movie, but they've been stingy on best director," O'Neil says.
Me and Earl and the Dying Girl
Keep your eye on Earl — it might be the little indie that could. "This is the classic little indie that will get in," says O'Neil, noting that the drama is backed by powerhouse studio Fox Searchlight (which propelled films like Black Swan and 12 Years a Slave to the Oscars stage). Plus, Earl earned the Sundance "double whammy": the audience award and the jury prize. "When you have both, it often it means you've earned a spot in the race if you have a big studio player behind you," he says.
The long shots
The End of the Tour
Critics applauded Jason Segel's take on the late author David Foster Wallace. But will it be enough? "It's a very chilly film," Simanton says.
Ex Machina
The sci-fi drama was one of summer's sleeper hits (and gave a boost to Alicia Vikander, who is a standout in this month's spy flick TheMan from U.N.C.L.E.), but it probably will get passed over come Oscar season.
Far From the Madding Crowd
This costume drama starring Carey Mulligan, praised as it was, probably will get lost in the shuffle. But don't worry: Mulligan has the strongly anticipated drama Suffragette with Meryl Streep hitting theaters this fall.
Straight Outta Compton
Critics cheered the N.W.A biopic, and audiences rewarded the film by leading it to open at No. 1. Could one of the actors be tapped come awards season? Davis points to Jason Mitchell. "I think he really commands the screen as Eazy-E," says Davis, noting Mitchell's nuanced portrayal of a man who dominates as the '90s rapper and ultimately loses a battle with AIDS. "It elevates the movie."
Charlize Theron
There's a strong contingent who saw Mad Max: Fury Road and wondered why it wasn't retitled Furiosa: Fury Road. "There's room to talk about Charlize Theron for best actress," says Simanton, but he adds that her performance probably will be edged out, thanks to a strong year for women (watch out for Cate Blanchett in Carol).
Southpaw
After a powerful turn in the boxing film, Jake Gyllenhaal could potentially punch his way into awards season. "That's an awards-worthy performance," says Davis, noting that the actor is at his prime. "Everything he's doing is awards-worthy." Buzz should continue thanks to his fall avalanche epic, Everest.
Spy
Hold out for comedy! Jason Statham should be given a second look, Simanton says. "After I saw Spy, I really think that there is a possibility of Jason Statham getting the best supporting (nod). Every time he showed up on screen, you were already laughing. It's an incredible role — it's so against type, it shows how underutilized this guy's been."
The standout documentaries
Amy
Audiences saw an entirely new side of the troubled, late chanteuse Amy Winehouse, thanks to award-winning director Asif Kapadia (Senna)'s documentary. A mixture of audio from hundreds of interviews and previously privately held video of the singer, Kapadia's film is destined for the best-documentary category. Just look at its commercial success: "It's already passed what 20 Feet From Stardom did as far as box office," Simanton says.
Going Clear
The Scientology takedown, which shocked the the Sundance Film Festival crowd in January and made its debut on HBO this spring, already won the water-cooler award of the year. Could Going Clear knock on Oscar's door? Probably not. Thanks to how divisive the subject matter is, Simanton says, Oscar voters will steer clear of the controversial piece.