'Civil War' takes aim at 'Avengers'-sized box office
Are summer movie records safe from an Avengers-sized throwdown?
The biggest cinema season of the year begins in earnest Thursday night with previews of Captain America: Civil War, the 13th movie in the successful Marvel Cinematic Universe. The film puts factions led by superfriends Captain America (Chris Evans) and Iron Man (Robert Downey Jr.) on opposing sides of a debate about who should police superheroes — government or themselves? — while also debuting new characters such as Black Panther (Chadwick Boseman) and a new movie Spider-Man (Tom Holland).
Add strong social-media interest “and you have what may be one of the most perfectly realized, fun and satisfying superhero movie experiences ever to pummel the big screen,” says Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst for tracking service comScore.
Civil War is doing well internationally, racking up more than $224 million since it opened last week in a dozen-plus global markets. Here, the movie already ranks as the No. 1 pre-selling superhero movie of all time, according to Fandango.com.
It probably won’t take down Star Wars: The Force Awakens’ all-time opening mark of $248 million, but a $210 million debut for Civil War “seems about right,” says ScreenCrush.com editor Mike Sampson. That would break the $208.8 million summer record set by Jurassic World last year.
But hitting that mark would be tough, according to Jeff Bock, senior box-office analyst for Exhibitor Relations. He says an “amazing” debut would be $180 million to $200 million, which would be apropos for a Captain America film that looks and acts like an Avengers project: The Avengers opened with $207.4 million in 2012, and Avengers: Age of Ultron racked up a $191.3 million debut last year.
“If Age of Ultron couldn’t top what Avengers did, I’m not sure how Civil War can,” says Bock.
In its favor: a slew of positive reviews. The third Captain America film has a 93% approval rating from critics on aggregate site RottenTomatoes.com. In a Fandango survey of more than 1,000 Civil War ticket buyers, 68% say they plan to see Civil War multiple times in a theater.
Samson predicts the critical acclaim will not only extend Civil War's summer run but also help it blow past the $325.2 million total domestic haul of the maligned Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice.
"There was a sense of tedium that surrounded Dawn of Justice, which could have negatively impacted Civil War if enough people felt superhero fatigue,” Sampson says. “Coming out early (with media screenings) and showing confidence in the product is translating into even more excitement.”
He sees three other films this summer that could complete dollar-wise with Civil War: fellow superhero film X-Men: Apocalypse (in theaters May 27), the long-awaited Pixar sequel Finding Dory (June 17) and the big-budget alien-invasion follow-up Independence Day: Resurgence (June 24). But he doesn't think anything will realistically catch it.
Adds Sampson: “It's strange to think that the summer movie season could peak before summer actually begins, but I can't imagine anything else coming close to Civil War this year."