Opposing movies offer appealing summer options
In this summer's pool of underwhelming movies, counterprogramming is flourishing.
The Legend of Tarzan turned out to be the biggest new movie at the Fourth of July box office, finishing second (behind Pixar's blockbuster Finding Dory) with a surprising $46.6 million for the four-day weekend (against projections of $30 million), according to tracking service comScore. The romantic action-adventure, starring Alexander Skarsgård and Margot Robbie, offered an appealing date-night alternative (66% of moviegoers were younger than 35) to horror movie The Purge: Election Year ($36.1 million) and Steven Spielberg's family-friendly TheBFG ($22.7 million).
It's just the latest movie to outwrestle its weight class and bring in unexpectedly sizable earnings.
Similarly, Dwayne Johnson/Kevin Hart buddy comedy Central Intelligence opened a strong second ($35.5 million) opposite Finding Dory in June, while My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 finished third (and collected $17.9 million) against superhero showdown Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice in March.
“On paper, it makes total sense,” says Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst for comScore. “Counterprogramming is the framework to get the most bang for the buck for movies that aren’t necessarily going to be blockbusters.”
Counterprogramming has become a crazy expensive game of chicken, Dergarabedian says.
Scheduling a rom-com next to a superhero franchise or a horror movie on Valentine's Day is a classic ploy, he says, but there’s no formula that's guaranteed.
“You still have to be able to deliver the movie,” Dergarabedian says. "People are looking for different and good. You can’t just rely on being the other option.”
The most successful examples of counterprogramming so far this year include The Angry Birds Movie and Central Intelligence.
In the battle between raunchy comedy Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising, cop comedy The Nice Guys and children’s comedy Angry Birds, the latter destroyed the other two. Angry Birds has raked in $105.7 million to date, more than Neighbors 2 and Nice Guys combined.
“Neighbors 2 and Nice Guys basically negated themselves by having a similar audience,” Dergarabedian says. “That’s why Angry Birds did so well.”
While Central Intelligence certainly wasn't going to beat Finding Dory, it still performed well as the adult alternative to a kids' movie.
“A lot of these are David and Goliath matchups,” Dergarabedian says. “But it’s about who wins the profitability derby. That can ultimately be more important than where you rank on the chart.”
To determine success, look at how well the audience is served rather than money, says Erik Davis, managing editor for Movies.com and Fandango.com. The greater the disparity in the genres, the better the position to succeed, he says.
Though Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 performed modestly against BvS, Davis considers that scheduling a win. “They (both) have potential to mine their specific audience,” he says.
Looking ahead, Davis really likes family fantasy Nine Lives opening the same weekend as DC Comics' hugely anticipated Suicide Squad. He also loves the scheduling of PTA comedy Bad Moms next to returning thriller Jason Bourne.
Davis doesn't see 2016 as an outlier, in terms of counterprogramming. "In every year, you’re going to have programming successes and those that backfire."
What can be said, though, is that in an inconsistent summer movie season, counterprogramming is helping steady the course.
"If anything, the box office is better right now than a year ago," Davis says.
