CMA Awards ballot: Who should/will win?
- The 47th CMA Awards will air Wednesday%2C live from Nashville on ABC
- Taylor Swift and Kacey Musgraves have the most nominations%2C with six each
- Blake Shelton is the reigning entertainer of the year%2C but probably won%27t repeat
Newcomers made a strong showing among this year's nominees for the Country Music Association Awards, with Kacey Musgraves receiving six nominations and Florida Georgia Line four. Will the rookies dominate Wednesday's awards ceremony (ABC, 8 p.m. ET/tape delay PT), or will voters go with favorites like Taylor Swift and Blake Shelton? Paste BN's Brian Mansfield assesses the field.
ENTERTAINER OF THE YEAR
Jason Aldean
Luke Bryan
Blake Shelton
George Strait
Taylor Swift
Will/should win: Luke Bryan. Strong arguments exist for any of these five deserving the night's top honor. Barring a sentimental "entertainer of a lifetime" nod for George Strait, though, Bryan's momentum pushes him through this tough field.
SINGLE
Cruise, Florida Georgia Line
Highway Don't Care, Tim McGraw with Taylor Swift and Keith Urban
Mama's Broken Heart, Miranda Lambert
Merry Go 'Round, Kacey Musgraves
Wagon Wheel, Darius Rucker
Will/should win: Florida Georgia Line. Cruise is the second most-downloaded country single ever, behind Lady Antebellum's Need You Now, and has broken chart records set by guys like Eddy Arnold and Hank Williams. Love it or hate it, it defined country this year.
ALBUM
Based On a True Story ..., Blake Shelton
Blown Away, Carrie Underwood
Red, Taylor Swift
Same Trailer, Different Park, Kacey Musgraves
Tornado, Little Big Town
Will/should win: Same Trailer, Different Park. Sales favor Swift's Red, but voters will stretch to consider it country. Instead, they'll reward the depth of songwriting on one of this year's best debuts in any genre.
SONG (award goes to songwriters)
I Drive Your Truck, Lee Brice (Jessi Alexander, Connie Harrington and Jimmy Yeary)
Mama's Broken Heart, Miranda Lambert (Brandy Clark, Shane McAnally and Kacey Musgraves)
Merry Go 'Round, Kacey Musgraves (Kacey Musgraves, Josh Osborne and Shane McAnally)
Pontoon, Little Big Town (Natalie Hemby, Luke Laird and Barry Dean)
Wagon Wheel, Darius Rucker (Bob Dylan and Ketch Secor)
Will win: Wagon Wheel. If Kacey Musgraves, nominated for two songs, splits her votes, Darius Rucker's remake of the Old Crow Medicine Show favorite wins Bob Dylan a CMA award, 44 years after he recorded Nashville Skyline.
Should win: I Drive Your Truck. This is an unusually strong category, with each song representing a different strength of country music. The Lee Brice hit, though, combines two great country traditions — grief songs and truck songs — putting a fresh spin on both.
FEMALE VOCALIST
Kelly Clarkson
Miranda Lambert
Kacey Musgraves
Taylor Swift
Carrie Underwood
Will win: Kacey Musgraves. Voters can sometimes get a little overzealous handing out awards to promising newcomers, and this category is due a fresh face.
Should win: Carrie Underwood. In a rough year for women at country radio, Underwood has, ahem, blown away the competition.
MALE VOCALIST
Jason Aldean
Luke Bryan
Eric Church
Blake Shelton
Keith Urban
Will win: Luke Bryan. He takes this as a precursor to entertainer of the year.
Should win: Jason Aldean. He's not the best singer of the bunch — that's Blake Shelton or Keith Urban — but he deserves more than he has gotten from the CMA.
VOCAL GROUP
Eli Young Band
Lady Antebellum
Little Big Town
The Band Perry
Zac Brown Band
Will win: Little Big Town. Momentum from 2012, when the well-liked vocal quartet won this and top single, carries over into a second year.
Should win: Zac Brown Band. As popular as any other group in this category and probably a bigger live draw.
VOCAL DUO
Big & Rich
Florida Georgia Line
Love and Theft
Sugarland
The Civil Wars
Thompson Square
Will/should win: Florida Georgia Line. As much fun as it'd be to see if a Civil Wars win could bring the estranged duo together again, this one's not even going to be close. If Florida Georgia Line walks away with just one trophy, it'll be this one.
MUSICAL EVENT
Boys 'Round Here, Blake Shelton (featuring Pistol Annies)
Cruise, Florida Georgia Line (with Nelly)
Don't Rush, Kelly Clarkson (featuring Vince Gill)
Highway Don't Care, Tim McGraw with Taylor Swift and Keith Urban
The Only Way I Know, Jason Aldean with Luke Bryan and Eric Church
Will/should win: Highway Don't Care. Great song + three superstars + two labels = easy win.
MUSICIAN
Sam Bush (mandolin)
Paul Franklin (steel guitar)
Dann Huff (guitar)
Brent Mason (guitar)
Mac McAnally (guitar)
Will win: Mac McAnally. He's won the past five years, though he appears on few albums other than Jimmy Buffett's and Kenny Chesney's. No reason to think 2013 will be any different.
Should win: Paul Franklin. Think George Strait has been on a lot of hits? This pedal-steel great has probably been on the radio more than any other nominees, in any category.
MUSIC VIDEO
Blown Away, Carrie Underwood (directed by Randee St. Nicholas)
Boys 'Round Here, Blake Shelton featuring Pistol Annies
Downtown, Lady Antebellum
Highway Don't Care, Tim McGraw with Taylor Swift and Keith Urban
Mama's Broken Heart, Miranda Lambert
Tornado, Little Big Town
Will/should win: Highway Don't Care. For its combination of sheer starpower, dramatic storytelling and shocking manner of re-contextualizing the song's lyrics.
NEW ARTIST
Lee Brice
Brett Eldredge
Florida Georgia Line
Kip Moore
Kacey Musgraves
Will/should win: Kacey Musgraves. Florida Georgia Line may have put up bigger numbers, but this one will be about image. Pretty, witty and just slightly left-of-center, Musgraves is the kind of artist the Nashville industry likes to have representing the genre.