Ballot: Who will/should win at the CMA Awards?
Country music honors its biggest and best Wednesday during the 48th annual Country Music Association Awards (ABC, 8 p.m. live ET/tape delay PT). Paste BN's Brian Mansfield predicts the night's likely winners, as well as the ones who deserve to be.
ENTERTAINER OF THE YEAR
Luke Bryan
Miranda Lambert
Blake Shelton
Keith Urban
George Strait
Should/will win: Bryan. Strait, who retired from the road this summer, got his sentimental win in this category last year. Bryan just came off his best touring year ever and has the year's second-best-selling country album. It's his turn. And, if he doesn't win anything else earlier in the night, it'll be his first CMA Award.
FEMALE VOCALIST
Miranda Lambert
Martina McBride
Kacey Musgraves
Taylor Swift
Carrie Underwood
Should/will win: Lambert. Underwood is Lambert's only real competition here, and her biggest hit of 2014 came from her Somethin' Bad duet with Lambert, whose five consecutive wins here will set a record for the category.
MALE VOCALIST
Dierks Bentley
Luke Bryan
Eric Church
Blake Shelton
Keith Urban
Should win: Bentley. Four other nominations and a decade-long track record of quality hits ought to be enough to win Bentley his moment in the spotlight.
Will win: Church. He's had a breakthrough year commercially, and four-time winner Shelton has to give up the title sometime, right?
NEW ARTIST
Brandy Clark
Brett Eldredge
Kip Moore
Thomas Rhett
Cole Swindell
Should win: Eldredge. The likable singer seems to have found his groove, putting together back-to-back No. 1 singles with Don't Ya and Beat of the Music.
Will win: Rhett. His last two singles went to No. 1, and he has a slight edge on album sales.
VOCAL GROUP
The Band Perry
Eli Young Band
Lady Antebellum
Little Big Town
Zac Brown Band
Should win: Lady Antebellum. Single Bartender and subsequent album 747 have put this group, which won from 2009 to 2011, back on track.
Will win: Little Big Town. An acclaimed new album, Pain Killer, plus a reputation for being four of the most-liked people in country music, let this quartet keep its hold on the category for a third year.
VOCAL DUO
Dan + Shay
Florida Georgia Line
Love and Theft
The Swon Brothers
Thompson Square
Should/will win: Florida Georgia Line. Yes, they're polarizing — but love 'em or hate 'em, they're hotter than anybody else in the category. No other act has the industry support to make a run at them.
SINGLE
Automatic, Miranda Lambert
Drunk on a Plane, Dierks Bentley
Give Me Back My Hometown, Eric Church
Meanwhile Back at Mama's, Tim McGraw feat. Faith Hill
Mine Would Be You, Blake Shelton
Should win: Automatic. From its message — that some things are just better when you have to wait for them — to its production, this record is simply great.
Will win: Mine Would Be You. One of the best love songs Shelton has recorded allows him to edge out his wife.
ALBUM
Riser, Dierks Bentley
Crash My Party, Luke Bryan
The Outsiders, Eric Church
Platinum, Miranda Lambert
Fuse, Keith Urban
Should/will win: The Outsiders. It's not only the year's top-selling country album, it's also the one that pushes the music the farthest while still honoring its roots.
SONG
Automatic, Miranda Lambert (Songwriters: Nicolle Galyon/Natalie Hemby/Miranda Lambert)
Follow Your Arrow, Kacey Musgraves (Songwriters: Kacey Musgraves/Brandy Clark/Shane McAnally)
Give Me Back My Hometown, Eric Church (Songwriters: Eric Church/Luke Laird)
I Don't Dance, Lee Brice (Songwriters: Lee Brice/Rob Hatch/Dallas Davidson)
I Hold On, Dierks Bentley (Songwriters: Brett James/Dierks Bentley)
Should win: I Don't Dance. Brice, who won last year for I Drive Your Truck, wrote a wedding song guys can love, which is no easy feat.
Will win: Automatic. The CMAs' top nominee should win two or three awards Wednesday, with this category being a likely prospect.
MUSICAL EVENT
Bakersfield, Vince Gill and Paul Franklin
Meanwhile Back at Mama's, Tim McGraw feat. Faith Hill
Somethin' Bad, Miranda Lambert with Carrie Underwood
We Were Us, Keith Urban feat. Miranda Lambert
You Can't Make Old Friends, Kenny Rogers with Dolly Parton
Should win: Bakersfield. One of country music's greatest singers and one of its greatest instrumentalists pay tribute to some of the genre's greatest songs. Hard to beat that.
Will win: We Were Us. The Urban/Lambert duet could get support from two labels, even though Lambert has another entry here. But don't count out a nostalgic vote for the Rogers and Parton reunion.
MUSIC VIDEO
Automatic, Miranda Lambert
Bartender, Lady Antebellum
Drunk on a Plane, Dierks Bentley
Follow Your Arrow, Kacey Musgraves
Somethin' Bad, Miranda Lambert with Carrie Underwood
Should win: Somethin' Bad. Country's top two female singers combining for a crime spree that plays like an action-adventure trailer? That's fun stuff.
Will win: Drunk on a Plane. Bentley plays passenger and pilot in this video, but the dual role won't get him the win. The '70s porn-star mustache will.
MUSICIAN
Sam Bush, mandolin
Jerry Douglas, Dobro
Paul Franklin, steel guitar
Dann Huff, guitar
Mac McAnally, guitar
Should win: Franklin. With his Bakersfield album also nominated, this could be the steel-guitar legend's best shot.
Will win: McAnally. A seventh trophy will give McAnally the record for most consecutive wins in this category.