Who'll take Tony home tonight-- and who should

Hard to believe that another Broadway season has come and gone, but this Sunday, the theater community once again gathers to honor its best and brightest at the Tony Awards. Paste BN's Elysa Gardner offers her predictions, and preferences.
Best play
The Assembled Parties (Richard Greenberg); Lucky Guy (Nora Ephron); The Testament of Mary (Colm Toibin); Vanya and Sonia and Masha and Spike (Christopher Durang)
Should/will win: The wacky, whimsical, ultimately poignant Chekhov mashup Vanya and Sonia has already earned several awards for Durang, a beloved vet whose time has clearly arrived.
Best musical
Bring It On: The Musical; A Christmas Story, The Musical; Matilda The Musical; Kinky Boots
Should/will win: For all its predictable aspects, Kinky Boots is more emotionally authentic -- and flat-out fun -- than the critically adored Matilda, a wonderful production of a show that's a little too self-conscious and smug to be a great musical.
Will win: Matilda, probably -- though it'll be close.
Best revival of a play
Golden Boy; Orphans; The Trip to Bountiful; Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf?
Should/will win: Lincoln Center Theater's shattering Golden Boy is just as deserving as the Steppenwolf-based Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf?; but the latter brought a new, bracing perspective to a more frequently performed 20th century classic, and will be rewarded for that.
Best revival of a musical
Annie; The Mystery of Edwin Drood; Pippin; Rodgers + Hammerstein's Cinderella
Should/will win: All were thoroughly charming, but Pippin was magical, reimagining a duly loved show (that had never been revived on Broadway) with both reverence and exhilarating imagination.
Best performance by an actor in a leading role in a play
Tom Hanks, Lucky Guy; Nathan Lane, The Nance; Tracy Letts, Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf; David Hyde Pierce, Vanya and Sonia and Masha and Spike; Tom Sturridge, Orphans
Should win: Lane gave one of the richest performances of his formidable career, and the prize would have been an easy favorite -- had it not been for Letts, who with his ferocious take on Virginia Woolf's George made a role played by many great actors completely his own.
Will win: Letts, most likely -- though don't discount Hanks; Tony loves movie stars when they're game and credible.
Best performance by an actress in a leading role in a play
Laurie Metcalf, The Other Place; Amy Morton, Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf; Kristine Nielsen, Vanya and Sonia and Masha and Spike; Holland Taylor, Ann; Cicely Tyson, The Trip to Bountiful
Should win: Like her co-star, Morton took an iconic character and put her own stamp on it; her witheringly dry, palpably needy Martha was a revelation.
Will win: In arguably the tightest race of any high-profile category, Tyson, a showbiz legend who made a delightful return to Broadway after a three-decade absence, is the likeliest victor.
Best performance by an actor in a leading role in a musical
Bertie Carvel, Matilda The Musical; Santino Fontana, Rodgers + Hammerstein's Cinderella; Rob McClure, Chaplin; Billy Porter, Kinky Boots; Stark Sands, Kinky Boots
Should/will win: Porter was entirely convincing, and captivating, as both a fabulous drag queen and a haunted, insecure young man -- who happened to be the same person.
Best performance by an actress in a leading role in a musical
Stephanie J. Block, The Mystery of Edwin Drood; Carolee Carmello, Scandalous; Valisia LeKae, Motown The Musical; Patina Miller, Pippin; Laura Osnes, Rodgers + Hammerstein's Cinderella
Should/will win: Each was enchanting in her own way, but Miller faced the greatest challenge: re-creating a role that would forever be associated with one of musical theater's great male performers, Ben Vereen. She pulled it off with both class and sass.
Best direction of a play
Pam MacKinnon, Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf?; Nicholas Martin, Vanya and Sonia and Masha and Spike; Bartlett Sher, Golden Boy; George C. Wolfe, Lucky Guy
Should/will win: Bartlett's gorgeous Boy and Wolfe's smart, likable Guy make them strong contenders, but MacKinnon's fearless Virginia Woolf gives her the edge.
Best direction of a musical
Scott Ellis, The Mystery of Edwin Drood; Jerry Mitchell, Kinky Boots; Diane Paulus, Pippin; Matthew Warchus, Matilda The Musical
Should/will win: Warchus and Mitchell did splendidly with original work, but Paulus' revitalization of Pippin has been singled out by many musical fans and critics.
Best performance by an actor in a featured role in a play
Danny Burstein, Golden Boy; Richard Kind, The Big Knife; Billy Magnussen, Vanya and Sonia and Masha and Spike; Tony Shalhoub, Golden Boy; Courtney B. Vance, Lucky Guy
Should/will win: Another tough category, but the much-admired Burstein -- who narrowly lost the Tony for featured actor in a musical last year -- gave a deeply affecting performance, and there's a strong sense that it's his year.
Best performance by an actress in a featured role in a play
Carrie Coon, Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf; Shalita Grant, Vanya and Sonia and Masha and Spike; Judith Ivey, The Heiress; Judith Light, The Assembled Parties; Condola Rashad, The Trip to Bountiful
Should win: As the frail, mousy, booze-addled wife of an ambitious young professor, Coon more than held her own in a spectacular ensemble.
Will win: Anyone could, really -- but Light, who won in the same category last year, would represent a fondly regarded production that's not likely to pick up many other awards.
Best performance by an actor in a featured role in a musical
Charl Brown, Motown The Musical; Keith Carradine, Hands on a Hardbody; Will Chase, The Mystery of Edwin Drood; Gabriel Ebert, Matilda The Musical; Terrence Mann, Pippin
Should/will win: In another tight race between talented performers, Mann has the momentum.
Best performance by an actress in a featured role in a musical
Annaleigh Ashford, Kinky Boots; Victoria Clark, Rodgers + Hammerstein's Cinderella; Andrea Martin, Pippin; Keala Settle, Hands on a Hardbody; Lauren Ward, Matilda The Musical
Should/will win: Martin's show-stopping turn as Pippin's randy grandma was a season highlight for many theatergoers.
Best book of a musical
A Christmas Story, The Musical (Joseph Robinette); Kinky Boots (Harvey Fierstein); Matilda The Musical (Dennis Kelly); Rodgers + Hammerstein's Cinderella (Douglas Carter Beane)
Should win: Fierstein's playful wit and huge heart made Boots' cliches forgivable.
Will win:Matilda
Best original score (music and/or lyrics) written for the theater
A Christmas Story, The Musical (music and lyrics by Benj Pasek and Justin Paul); Hands on a Hardbody (music by Trey Anastasio and Amanda Green, lyrics by Amanda Green); Kinky Boots (music and lyrics by Cyndi Lauper); Matilda The Musical (music and lyrics by Tim Minchin)
Should/will win:Matilda can't be ruled out, but pundits and audiences alike have shown a soft spot for Lauper, who gave Boots delicious dance tunes and a winning ballad. (The arena-rock numbers were drippy, but so are most on Broadway.)
Best choreography
Andy Blankenbuehler, Bring It On: The Musical; Peter Darling, Matilda The Musical; Jerry Mitchell, Kinky Boots; Chet Walker, Pippin
Should/will win: Working "in the style" of Bob Fosse, his mentor, and with the inventive circus vet Gypsy Snider, Walker gave a classic the pizzazz and purposefulness it demanded.