Will a Panthers Super Bowl win be bullish for stocks?
NEW YORK — The big game is Sunday. As odd as it seems, fans of Wall Street superstition might not be rooting for their favorite football team to be the Super Bowl champ.
In 40 of the last 49 Super Bowls, there has been a weird relationship between who wins the game and how the stock market does that year.
Dubbed the Super Bowl Indicator, this basically says that if the NFC team wins, stocks will end the year with a gain. Conversely, an AFC win means stocks end the year in the red.
Rational people know that football and stocks have no connection. Forces such as the economy, corporate earnings, interest rates and — as this year has made so clear — oil prices determine the direction of the market.
Even Robert Stovall, who first brought the indicator to the public’s attention years ago, admits there is nothing scientific about it, chalking it up to coincidence.
Still, an 81.6% success rate is hard to ignore. Last year the indicator worked again, but just barely. The AFC’s New England Patriots won. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index ended the year down, but its loss was only 0.7%
Back to Sunday’s game. Based on the Super Bowl Indicator, stock investors should be pulling for the Carolina Panthers to win. Oddsmakers have them favored.
But assuming the indicator works again, and considering the stock market’s horrific start to 2016, things are looking pretty good for the Denver Broncos — underdog or not.
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