This week's economic highlight: The election!
While the course of the economy each week typically hangs on such scintillating data as orders for durable goods, this week’s events feature a more prominent development: the presidential election. The vote, which could shape the contours of the economy for years to come, is at the center of a light week of economic news that includes reports on consumer credit and labor market dynamics.
After hunkering down since the recession, consumers have felt more comfortable borrowing money in recent months, especially since they’ve whittled down debt levels. Total consumer credit increased at an annual rate of 8.5%, or $26 billion, in August, the fastest pace in a year. Revolving credit, such as credit cards, had been sluggish until this year but it rose 7%. Non-revolving credit, such as auto and student loans, increased 9%. Economists expect the Federal Reserve on Monday to report a moderation in September, with total credit expanding by a still-solid $18 billion.
The election has created a cloud of uncertainty over taxes, regulation and other policies that, according to some businesses, has curtailed hiring and investment. A clear victory on Tuesday by Democrat Hillary Clinton, who represents the status quo, likely would set off at least a short-term relief rally in markets, says economist Paul Ashworth of Capital Economics. A win by Republican Donald Trump likely would intensify worries over potential trade skirmishes with countries such as China and Mexico and a crackdown on immigration that could restrict the labor supply. But a close election that’s contested likely would prolong the uncertainty and weigh on markets for weeks, Ashworth says. Even a decisive Clinton victory would still leave glaring questions. For example, how much of her plan to raise taxes on the wealthy and increase spending on infrastructure, education and aid to low- and middle-income households will be passed by a likely divided Congress? Generally, economists believe Clinton’s blueprint would moderately boost economic growth, while Trump’s across-the-board tax cuts would swell the debt and raise the risk of recession.
The Labor Department’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey will be decidedly less momentous but still offers a window into the labor market. Monthly job growth has slowed this year to an average pace of 181,000 from 229,000. Yet with the unemployment rate at 4.9%, many economists chalk up the moderation to a tighter labor market with fewer available workers. Job openings were at a near record 5.8 million in July, signaling employer demand remained healthy. But openings fell to 5.4 million in August. And another drop in the September total “could be an early warning sign that labor market conditions are softening,” says Nomura economist Lewis Alexander.