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Slower job growth: Supply or demand problem?


The monthly jobs report gets all the headlines, but a more obscure government release may provide a more transparent window into the labor market.

The Labor Department’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) digs beneath the job growth and unemployment figures to reveal employer demand and employee movements.

Average monthly payroll gains have slowed this year — to 180,000 from 229,000 in 2015 — a development most economists trace to a low jobless rate that’s providing employers with fewer available workers.

But in August and September, job openings totaled about 5.5 million after hitting a record 5.8 million in July, according to JOLTS, suggesting that employer demand may have cooled recently. Some economists and staffing firms say that may have stemmed, at least partly, from uncertainty tied to the presidential election.

In October, employers added just 142,000 jobs, according to revisions the Labor Department released Friday. The latest JOLTS report for that month, out Wednesday, will show whether openings were sluggish for a third month or bounced back. In other words, were the scant job gains a supply or demand problem?

On the bright side, workers have leverage in a tight market. In September, 3.1 million of them quit jobs, close to a 15-year high. That shows most had another gig lined up or were confident they could get one. The October JOLTS survey will reveal if that dynamic persisted as well.