The Social Security crisis is coming one year earlier than we thought
The Social Security shortfall date just moved a little nearer.
New federal projection released June 18 show the combined Social Security trust funds will pay 100% of benefits until 2034 before becoming depleted. That date is one year earlier than the Social Security Administration reported a year ago.
“As in prior years, we found that the Social Security and Medicare programs both continue to face significant financing issues,” program trustees wrote in a summary of their 2025 annual report.
The Social Security Administration faces a funding crisis. Trustees say the projected shortfall in retirement benefits has risen to $25.1 trillion through 2099, up from $22.6 trillion a year ago.
The Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund, which pays benefits to retirees and their families, is projected to pay total scheduled benefits until 2033, the report shows.
“At that time, the fund’s reserves will become depleted and continuing program income will be sufficient to pay 77% of total scheduled benefits,” the report says.
The separate Disability Insurance Trust Fund is fully funded through at least 2099, the agency reports.
The combined programs, however, can pay 100% of benefits only through 2034. At that point, the program’s reserves would be depleted.
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New Social Security shortfall dates alarm retirement advocates
Retirement advocates sounded alarm at the findings.
The new projections "show the trust fund for Social Security is going to be depleted one year sooner than was projected last year, which means that Social Security recipients may see a 19% reduction in their Social Security income one year sooner," Myechia Minter-Jordan, CEO of AARP, said in a statement. "Congress must act to protect and strengthen the Social Security that Americans have earned and paid into throughout their working lives. More than 69 million Americans rely on Social Security today and as America's population ages, the stability of this vital program only becomes more important."
Social Security faces a shortfall because the program spends more than it takes in. In 2024, the OASI Trust Fund cost $1,327 billion to administer, but income totaled only $1,224 billion, a shortfall of $103 billion.
The notion that Social Security faces a shortfall suffuses the national conversation about preparing for retirement. Older Americans wonder if their monthly checks will go down midway through their golden years. Younger Americans have doubled down on retirement savings, partly out of fear that Social Security won’t fully support them.
In more bad tidings, the trustees reported that a crucial Medicare trust fund will face a shortfall in 2033, three years earlier than projected a year ago. The Hospital Insurance Trust Fund pays for health care services at hospitals and nursing homes, among other categories. By 2033, the fund will cover only 89% of all scheduled benefits, according to the report.
The trust funds' financial health "remains a top priority for the Trump Administration," Frank Bisignano, the Social Security commissioner, said in a statement.
(This story was updated to add new information.)