What to watch: Traders turn to retail numbers

The big miss on the August jobs report has raised the question: Is it a one-off event or the start of another period of subpar economic growth in what has already been a less-than-robust U.S. recovery?

That's the question circulating on Wall Street after the economy created just 144,000 jobs in August, roughly 90,000 fewer than economists expected. The weak number snapped a six-month string of monthly job gains in excess of 200,000.

Whether it's a warning sign or a one-month fluke caused by seasonal distortions won't be apparent overnight. Next week is light on fresh releases of economic data — except for the all-important August retail sales number, due out Friday.

Retail sales are a good barometer of the health of the U.S. consumer, and a weak retail sales number would only add to the angst being felt by the growth bulls.

"The major short-term driver of the market will be the retail sales number," says Dan Heckman, national investment consultant at U.S. Bank Wealth Management.

Although Heckman doubts the veracity of the weak jobs number, calling it "a little messy," and expects the August jobs figure to be revised upward. It "heightens the importance of (Friday's) retail sales number" and the all-important consumer, he says.

Says Heckman: "It will be a key indicator for the market to see if we are hitting a little soft patch in the economy."