Ask Matt: Is Joy Global's pain over?

Q: Is Joy Global's pain ove r?

A: Talk about a business that's more pain than joy: Supplying equipment to the commodity industry. Falling commodity prices are putting a squeeze on the entire industry.

Weak demand for commodity gear is causing a startling lack of joy for investors in Joy Global. The company makes equipment used primarily to extract commodities like coal from the ground. The business is struggling mightly - both fundamentally and on the stock market. Shares of Joy are down roughly 70% over the past year as earnings dry up faster than expected. The company reported a quarterly profit of 54 cents a share, missing expectations by 12%.

More concerning is the company isn't seeing a bounceback anytime soon, but continued weakness. The company told investors it only expects to earn $1.80 a share in fiscal 2015, down from the previously expected range of between $2.50 to $3 a share. Analysts are holding out a lofty price target, saying the stock should be worth $40.32 a share in 18 months. If that's correct, it would be 116% potential upside. But analysts also don't see all that sure that the bet is worthwhile - as the average rating on the stock is "hold." New Constructs, which compares stock prices to expected future cash flows, rates the stock "neutral."

Paste BN markets reporter Matt Krantz answers a different reader question every weekday. To submit a question, e-mail Matt at mkrantz@usatoday.com or on Twitter @mattkrantz.