Wall Street braces for deluge of jobs data

Members of the Federal Reserve may not be looking for jobs themselves, but they’re sure keeping a close watch on how many Americans are getting hired as they assess whether or not to hike interest rates later this year for the first since 2006.

When the Fed ended its October meeting last week, it held off on raising rates but said it was on track to boost rates at the December meeting if the jobs picture saw more improvement.

Wall Street, which is enjoying a snap-back stock rally that has the market close to its old highs, gets three fresh looks at how sturdy the job market is this week. The first comes today when payroll processor ADP lets investors know how many jobs private employers created in October. In September, the private sector created 200,000 jobs, topping expectations. Economists are forecasting a gain of 180,000 jobs in October.

Next up is the weekly reading on Americans filing for unemployment benefits, set for release Thursday. Economists expect initial claims to tick up to 264,000. Last week initial claims came in at 260,000.

The big kahuna comes Friday when the government reports its non-farm payroll number for October. Wall Street is looking to see if the disappointing 142,000 jobs created in September was an anomaly or the beginning of a weakening trend. Economists are forecasting a jump in job creation in October to 180,000 and the unemployment rate to stay unchanged at 5.1%.

If the jobs numbers come in strong, the case for a Fed rate hike in December grows stronger. If the data is weak, the Fed’s next move likely will be delayed until 2016.