Is S&P 500 new high drought a reason for worry?
Pop quiz: When was the last time the benchmark Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index notched a record closing high? Answer: May 21, 2015, when it closed at 2130.82.
The large-company U.S. stock gauge hasn’t made a new high since and is 9.8% off its peak heading into Wednesday's trading session. In pre-market trading around 6 a.m. ET Wednesday the S&P 500 was down 0.7% after tumbling 1.25% Tuesday.
So should you worry? No, says John Canally, chief economic strategist at LPL Financial.
Sure , the S&P 500 isn’t hitting new highs with the regularity it did in 2014, when it notched 53 record closes, or in 2013 when it clocked in with 45 highs. But Canally noted in a report that there have been other periods in history when the S&P 500 went a long time without hitting a peak without sinister consequences.
So just because a fresh record peak for the S&P 500 isn’t imminent, the new-high record drought doesn’t have to add up to disaster for stock investors, either.
“The S&P 500 did not have a new high from 1929 to 1954, which puts the current nine-month break in perspective,” he wrote. “The bear markets of the 1970s, dot-com bubble, and financial crisis all lasted well over 1,000 days without a new high.”
The good news? “There can be periods of time without new highs when there is also no major market crash, as long as the economy doesn’t falter,” he wrote.
Canally concludes: “With the overall economy still on firm footing and a potential increase in earnings later this year, the odds of a major bear market correction of 20% or more are still low. Thus, this lack of new highs is perfectly normal and not a warning sign.”