What must happen for each candidate to win Monday night's Iowa Caucus
As many 300,000 Iowans (160,000 Democrats and 140,000 Republicans) are expected to turn out for tonight's caucuses. Keys to victory for the four top candidates:
For Donald Trump to win
► Big turnout, especially by the first-time caucus-goers who have been
flooding his rallies
► Ben Carson supporters hold firm for Carson, even though their numbers are
ebbing, and not go to Cruz. They are predominantly evangelicals and are
more likely to back Cruz than Trump
► Bring some religious conservatives to his side
► Last minute flap about Cruz misleading mailers to voters costs Cruz
support
For Ted Cruz to win
► Lower turnout; those Trump supporters who have jammed his rallies but
not participated in caucuses before stay home
► Succeeds in convincing Carson supporters that their candidate can't make
it, they should join Cruz.
► Hope pollsters were wrong about Trump support
► Superior ground game allows him to outperform the polls
For Hillary Clinton to win
► Turnout below the record level of 2008 that Barack Obama generated
► College students who support Bernie Sanders don't turn out, or are limited to
college towns, which reduce their influence
► Martin O'Malley supporters, who probably won't reach viability levels, either
go to her or split
For Bernie Sanders to win
► Big turnout, especially by young people
► Email raising enough questions about Clinton that some of her supporters
stay home or switch sides
► O'Malley supporters, when he doesn’t reach 15% viability, decide to
disproportionately support Sanders