Democrat dust-up over infrastructure underscores Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema's hold on Biden's agenda
WASHINGTON – "It's not possible."
With three words, Sen. Joe Manchin Wednesday demonstrated the constraints facing President Joe Biden and his progressive allies on Capitol Hill as they try to push through Congress a far-reaching expansion of federal social, economic and climate programs.
The West Virginia Democrat was referring to the prospects that he could reach agreement with the White House on legislative language or at least the framework of such a bill by Thursday, the day the House is scheduled to vote on a bipartisan infrastructure bill that moderates demand must pass now. Manchin's comments put that vote further in doubt because liberals have said they will oppose it unless a deal on the larger bill has been struck between Biden, Manchin and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, D-Ariz.
Manchin said there was no chance that he would agree to a deal on the social spending package by Thursday – in effect daring left-leaning lawmakers to defeat the infrastructure bill, which has broad bipartisan support.
"It's not possible," Manchin said Wednesday afternoon outside the Capitol. "What's possible is to sit down and have a good, frank negotiation and pass the infrastructure bill."
Biden's agenda lies in his ability to win over Manchin and Sinema on a bill that began as a $3.5 trillion blueprint to expand safety net programs and climate resilience but is likely to be considerably smaller since both senators will have a large say in what passes an evenly divided Senate that Democrats control by Vice President Kamala Harris' tiebreaking vote.
More: Nancy Pelosi's ability to mend Democratic differences is put to the test with infrastructure vote
The Senate passed the infrastructure bill in August with Republican support. It includes about $550 billion in new money and would provide tens of billions of dollars for new roads, rails and transit, as well as money for broadband expansion and electric vehicle charging stations.
The more costly "human infrastructure" bill calls for free pre-kindergarten for 3- and 4-year-olds, two years of free community college and paid family and sick leave. It would expand Medicare to include dental, hearing and vision benefits.
Manchin and Sinema raised deep doubts about their ability to support such a large package given the spiraling federal debt that approaches $28 trillion.
Manchin, a fiscal conservative who represents a state Donald Trump won overwhelmingly in the presidential election in 2020, said he was a "hard no" on the price tag this month. Sinema, who represents a state Biden narrowly won last year, has raised concerns about drug pricing changes in the proposal.
The deadlock over both bills comes nearly a year before the midterm elections in which Democrats' majorities in both houses of Congress will be at stake. If Biden and congressional Democrats are unable to pass the changes they campaigned on, it could be disastrous for them next year, said Elaine Kamarck, an expert on Congress who directs the Center for Effective Public Management at the Brookings Institution in Washington.
"I think there's lots of opportunities for people, for all the sides, to give in on things, and in the end, if Democrats don't pass these two things, then they deserve to lose in 2022," she said. "It'll just be irresponsible abdication of their power."
More: Nancy Pelosi's ability to mend Democratic differences is put to the test with infrastructure vote
Thursday was supposed to be a day of triumph for Biden: passage of the largest infrastructure bill in U.S. history and an agreement on a once-in-a-generation expansion of social, economic and climate programs. But Wednesday's developments underscored the sway Manchin has in a party with little room to maneuver.
"We should have targeted means testing, work requirements, things that really make America great and give people a chance out there trying to hustle and take care of those who can't help themselves," Manchin said. " Pretty simple."
Later Wednesday, he issued a statement:
"While I am hopeful that common ground can be found that would result in another historic investment in our nation, I cannot – and will not – support trillions in spending or an all or nothing approach that ignores the brutal fiscal reality our nation faces," he said. "There is a better way and I believe we can find it if we are willing to continue to negotiate in good faith."
Biden scrapped a planned trip to Chicago, so he could meet with Manchin and Sinema while House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., weighed whether to proceed with the vote Thursday on the massive infrastructure bill in the face of likely defeat.
"We take it one step at a time," Pelosi said Wednesday when asked about keeping the Thursday vote.
Michigan Rep. Dan Kildee, chief deputy whip for the Democrats, told CNN he advised Pelosi to postpone the vote.
"Let's bring it to the floor when we feel we can pass it," he said.
That aligned with the argument of Sen. Bernie Sanders, the Vermont independent pushing Biden to expand social and climate programs. He encouraged House progressives to hold firm against the infrastructure bill until the Senate is able to agree on and approve the bigger bill.
"This is one of the most significant pieces of legislation in the modern history of America, and if it passed on a Tuesday and not a Monday or a Thursday or a Friday, it doesn't matter. What matters is it's done and done well," Sanders said.
Rep. Stephanie Murphy, D-Fla., a centrist who co-chairs the Blue Dog Coalition, told CNN that not proceeding with the vote Thursday would be "a breach of trust with the American people."
Biden's agenda hinges on whether moderates and progressives can resolve their differences enough to move ahead on both bills that represent the linchpins of Biden's agenda. It's been made more complicated by the whisker-thin margins the party holds in both chambers. Every Democrat in the Senate and nearly every Democrat in the House must be on board for legislation to pass assuming that no Republicans join them.
Despite the uncertainty around the bipartisan infrastructure bill, Rep. Josh Gottheimer, D-N.J., a moderate who co-chairs the House Problem Solvers Caucus, was optimistic the vote would happen and the bill would pass.
"In 24 hours around here, lots can happen. We're going to get there. We have no choice to get this done so we will," he told Politico Wednesday morning. "We'll be drinking a nice glass of champagne over here to celebrate the great victory for the country."