Pennsylvania could decide the White House race; what the polls say now
Seven swing states will likely determine the next president of the United States on election day - especially Pennsylvania.
Most states consistently vote blue or red such as the 38 states that voted for the same party over and over between 2000 and 2016, but some lean differently in each election. These battleground states of Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin are swinging so close that it can really go either way.
Pennsylvania holds the largest number of electoral votes and is considered essential to winning the White House, with both former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris hoping to sweep up the state’s 19 electoral votes on Election Night.
The state's electoral votes have been given to Democrats in the last 7 out of 8 elections dating back to the election of 1992, the sole Republican vote went to Trump in 2016.
Pennsylvania's presidential voting record has proven, if anything, that it is very closely divided when voting between between democrats and republicans.
Over the past 200 years worth of elections, the Keystone state has cast their electoral votes for 26 republican presidential candidates and 20 democrats, with a success rate of 83% in casting for the winning president.
Here is what the Pennsylvania polls, odds say now — compared to the national polls and odds — as we head into Election Day on Tuesday, Nov. 5.
Who is winning in Pennsylvania?
- ABC News project 538 shows Harris leading in the national polls by +1.4% however Trump is leading the Pennsylvania poll by +0.4%.
- 270towin shows Harris leading the national polls by 1.0% however Trump is leading in the Pennsylvania poll by 0.6%
- realclearpolling shows the national betting odds are in Trump's favor with a spread of +0.4. He is also favored by a +0.7 spread in Pennsylvania
- Polymarket, a crypto-trading platform is expressing odds by the betting public, are giving Trump 66.1% odds compared to Harris's 33.8% national odds. Pennsylvania's odds favor Trump 63% over Harris at 38%.
Polls and odds are constantly changing. These numbers were reflected as of Wednesday, Oct. 30, 2024, at 2:30 p.m.
How accurate have election odds or polls been in past presidential elections?
The betting favorite has only lost twice since 1866, according to the Conversation, a nonprofit news organization.
The track record on polling is more challenging as different pollsters asking different varieties of the population can often draw higher margins for error.
According to Pew Research, confidence in the public's opinion polling has suffered given the errors in the presidential elections of 2016 and 2020.
In both of these general elections, many polls underestimated the strength of the Republican candidates, including Donald Trump.