What the polls say now about the 2024 election with five days left
The Election Day countdown clock is ticking with just 5 days left to vote.
While there are many local and state races to be voted on, the biggest question is: Who will be the 47th president of the United States.
Two months worth of poll data have shown what a contentious and tight presidential race this has become. It has also shown that the crucial swing states of Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin are all but certain to decide the race next week.
Will Former President Donald Trump be returned to the White House with JD Vance at his side or will Vice President Kamala Harris become the first female president with progressive partner Tim Walz at her side?
The answer to those questions depends on whom you ask and which polls you read.
Here is what the polls, odds and historian are saying now as we head into Election Day on Tuesday, Nov. 5. To see the latest swing state polls and odds, click here.
Who is leading in the polls and favored in the odds?
- ABC News project 538 shows Harris leading in the national polls 48.0% over Trump 46.7% — compared to last week Harris 48.2% over Trump 46.4%, compared to Harris 48.5% over Trump 46.1% two weeks ago, compared to Harris 48% over Trump 47.3% three weeks ago, compared to Harris 48.5% over Trump 45.8% four weeks ago, compared to Harris 48.3% over Trump 45.6% five weeks ago, compared to Harris 48.3% over Trump 45.3% six weeks ago, compared to Harris 47.1% over Trump 44.4% seven weeks ago, compared to Harris 47.1% over Trump at 43.9% eight weeks ago, or compared to Harris 47.0% over Trump at 43.7% nine weeks ago.
- 270towin shows Harris with the smallest lead in the national polls of 0.8% over Trump — compared to Harris 1.5% over Trump last week, compared to Harris 2.5% over Trump two weeks ago, compared Harris 2.8% over Trump three weeks ago, compared to Harris 3.7% over Trump four weeks ago, compared to Harris over Trump by 3% five weeks ago, compared to Harris 2.5% over Trump six weeks ago, compared to Harris 0.9% over Trump seven weeks ago, compared to Harris 2.7% over Trump to eight weeks ago, or compared to Harris 1.9% over Trump nine weeks ago.
- realclearpolling shows the betting odds have flipped to Trump's favor by +0.5% spread over Harris — compared to Harris over Trump by +0.8 last week, compared to Harris favored by +1.7 two weeks ago, compared to a tie between Harris and Trump three weeks ago, compared to Harris favored by +1.8 four weeks ago, compared to Harris favored by +2.3 five weeks ago, compared to Harris favored +2.0 six weeks ago, compared to Harris +1.1 seven weeks ago, compared to Harris +1.8 eight weeks ago, and compared to Harris +1.7 nine weeks ago.
- Polymarket, a crypto-trading platform is expressing growing odds by the betting public, in favor of Trump 64.9% over Harris 35.3% — compared to last week's Trump 64.1% over Harris 36.0%, compared Trump 56.3% over Harris 43.1% two weeks ago, compared to Trump 52.8% over Harris 46.7% three weeks ago, compared with Harris favored over Trump by 2% four weeks ago, compared to Harris over Trump by 3% five weeks ago, compared to Harris over Trump by 2% six weeks ago, compared to Harris over Trump by 1% seven weeks ago, compared to Trump over Harris by 4% eight weeks ago, or compared to Harris over Trump by 1% nine weeks ago.
Polls and odds are constantly changing. These numbers were reflected as of Thursday, Oct. 31, 2024, at 12 p.m.
How accurate have election odds or polls been in past presidential elections?
The betting favorite has only lost twice since 1866, according to the Conversation, a nonprofit news organization.
The track record on polling is more challenging as different pollsters asking different varieties of the population can often draw higher margins for error.
According to Pew Research, confidence in the public's opinion polling has suffered given the errors in the presidential elections of 2016 and 2020.
In both of these general elections, many polls underestimated the the strength of the Republican candidates, including Donald Trump.