Who's ahead in the presidential race with five days to go? What the polls say today
The Election Day countdown clock is ticking with just 5 days left to vote.
While there are many local and state races to be voted on, the biggest question is: Who will be the 47th president of the United States.
Two months worth of poll data have shown what a contentious and tight presidential race this has become. It has also shown that the crucial swing states of Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin are all but certain to decide the race next week.
Will Former President Donald Trump be returned to the White House with JD Vance at his side or will Vice President Kamala Harris become the first female president with progressive partner Tim Walz at her side?
The answer to those questions depends on whom you ask and which polls you read.
Here is what the polls, odds and historian are saying now as we head into Election Day on Tuesday, Nov. 5. To see the latest swing state polls and odds, click here.
Who is leading in the polls and favored in the odds?
- ABC News project 538 shows Harris leading in the national polls 48.0% over Trump 46.7% — compared to last week Harris 48.2% over Trump 46.4%, compared to Harris 48.5% over Trump 46.1% two weeks ago, compared to Harris 48% over Trump 47.3% three weeks ago, compared to Harris 48.5% over Trump 45.8% four weeks ago, compared to Harris 48.3% over Trump 45.6% five weeks ago, compared to Harris 48.3% over Trump 45.3% six weeks ago, compared to Harris 47.1% over Trump 44.4% seven weeks ago, compared to Harris 47.1% over Trump at 43.9% eight weeks ago, or compared to Harris 47.0% over Trump at 43.7% nine weeks ago.
- 270towin shows Harris with the smallest lead in the national polls of 0.8% over Trump — compared to Harris 1.5% over Trump last week, compared to Harris 2.5% over Trump two weeks ago, compared Harris 2.8% over Trump three weeks ago, compared to Harris 3.7% over Trump four weeks ago, compared to Harris over Trump by 3% five weeks ago, compared to Harris 2.5% over Trump six weeks ago, compared to Harris 0.9% over Trump seven weeks ago, compared to Harris 2.7% over Trump to eight weeks ago, or compared to Harris 1.9% over Trump nine weeks ago.
- realclearpolling shows the betting odds have flipped to Trump's favor by +0.5% spread over Harris — compared to Harris over Trump by +0.8 last week, compared to Harris favored by +1.7 two weeks ago, compared to a tie between Harris and Trump three weeks ago, compared to Harris favored by +1.8 four weeks ago, compared to Harris favored by +2.3 five weeks ago, compared to Harris favored +2.0 six weeks ago, compared to Harris +1.1 seven weeks ago, compared to Harris +1.8 eight weeks ago, and compared to Harris +1.7 nine weeks ago.
- Polymarket, a crypto-trading platform is expressing growing odds by the betting public, in favor of Trump 64.9% over Harris 35.3% — compared to last week's Trump 64.1% over Harris 36.0%, compared Trump 56.3% over Harris 43.1% two weeks ago, compared to Trump 52.8% over Harris 46.7% three weeks ago, compared with Harris favored over Trump by 2% four weeks ago, compared to Harris over Trump by 3% five weeks ago, compared to Harris over Trump by 2% six weeks ago, compared to Harris over Trump by 1% seven weeks ago, compared to Trump over Harris by 4% eight weeks ago, or compared to Harris over Trump by 1% nine weeks ago.
Polls and odds are constantly changing. These numbers were reflected as of Thursday, Oct. 31, 2024, at 12 p.m.
What did Allan Lichtman predict for presidential election of 2024?
Presidential historian Allan Lichtman, 77, is a distinguished professor of history at American University and lives in Bethesda, Maryland.
The presidential historian has predicted that Vice President Kamala Harris will win the 2024 presidential election over former President Donald Trump. He claims to use a set of 13 "keys" to make his picks, which range from economic indicators to candidates' charisma.
Lichtman has correctly predicted the outcome of almost every election over the last half-century, except for the race in 2000, in which Republican George W. Bush defeated Democrat Al Gore.