Daily Briefing: Is the economy hot or not?

Good morning!🙋🏼‍♀️ I'm Nicole Fallert. The dreaded gym class mile run is back.

Quick look at Monday's news:

• We learned discouraging and encouraging news about the U.S. economy in recent days.
• Get ready for ICE to flood your social media feeds.
• Small-town activists think rural Americans could swing Democrat.

Economy = weak labor market + tariff uncertainty

Employers in the U.S. added a disappointing 73,000 jobs (well below the expected 102,000) in July as payroll growth slowed amid President Donald Trump's sweeping import tariffs, intensified immigration crackdown and massive federal layoffs.

This was no blip: The poor showing likely wasn’t an outlier that will be followed by a resumption of healthy job gains in the months ahead, economists told Paste BN. More concerning, however, were downward revisions to April and May’s numbers, suggesting the labor market may be weaker than previously thought.

• In response, Trump ordered the firing of Erika McEntarfer, the U.S. commissioner of Labor Statistics. The president in a social media post accused McEntarfer of manipulating the math for "political purposes," though he did not provide any evidence.
• Will there be a recession in 2025? Amid worries about Trump's tariffs pushing up prices, consumers are reigning in. That should translate into weaker job gains, especially in sectors such as manufacturing, retail, trucking and warehousing, economists say. A recession now appears “very, very likely” unless Trump lowers the tariffs by Labor Day, one economist told Paste BN.
• Any encouraging news? GDP grew 3%.

💵 What the Trump administration means for your wallet: Sign up for Paste BN's Daily Money newsletter for more tips and analysis.

Texas Democrats seek to block redistricting vote by leaving state

Democratic lawmakers in Texas said Sunday they were leaving the state to deny Republicans the quorum needed to redraw the state's 38 congressional districts, a move sought to protect the Republicans' narrow U.S. House majority in next year's midterm elections. President Trump has championed the redistricting plan, telling reporters he expects the effort to yield as many as five additional House Republicans. Republicans hold a narrow 220-212 majority in the House of Representatives, with three Democratic-held seats vacant after members' deaths. In a video shot in front of an airport, Democratic Representative James Talarico said the redistricting amounted to "rigging" the 2026 elections.

More news to know now

• A United pilot called out mayday shortly after takeoff.
• Despite Trump’s campaign pledge, the White House has no current plans to mandate insurance coverage for IVF.
• Should Americans be worried about Dexter?
• A "megafire" rages near the Grand Canyon.

What's the weather today? Check your local forecast here.

ICE is recruiting agents with incentives

Dangling bonuses of up to $50,000, federal officials are launching a massive recruitment campaign to hire more than 14,000 immigration agents, attorneys and other workers to help execute President Trump's border crackdown. The president is newly flush with billions in funding and wants to deport 1 million people a year with the help of Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents. Even before the new hires take their posts, the dramatic expansion of public ICE operations has upset communities. And the aggressive recruitment efforts have also angered local sheriffs who worry that deputies in already understaffed offices will be lured away by the big bonuses and higher pay.

Will Rural America give up on Trump?

“The frustration with Republicans is palpable. Maybe we never get the MAGA voters — we probably never will — but there’s a ton of independents out there looking at this and just saying, ‘man, this isn’t what I voted for.’” 

~ Matt Hildreth, Executive Director of RuralOrganizing.org. Hildreth's group is already operating in congressional battleground districts in Iowa, Ohio and Pennsylvania, with a focus on getting people to talk about Medicaid. 

Today's talkers

• Where do you get Doechii, Olivia Rodrigo and T-Pain?? Lollapalooza.
• "Sex and the City" fans celebrate and mourn the end of "And Just Like That..."
• Watch Mimi Rhodes sink a hole-in-one off another golf ball.
• Here are the Little League Softball World Series games to watch Monday.
• "Attention rehab" videos are going viral.

Winners and losers from the US track and field championships

Melissa Jefferson-Wooden accomplished the sprint double, Sydney McLaughlin-Levrone was golden in the 400 and Noah Lyles was braggadocious as he won another 200 national title. On the field, Valarie Allman continued her reign over the discus and Tara Davis-Woodhall leaped to the top mark in the world in the long jump. The U.S. track and field championships served as the qualifying stage for next month’s world championships in Tokyo, Japan. Paste BN Sports was on the sidelines at Hayward Field for all the action.

Photo of the day: You did that, Trinity!

The NWSL saw the return of one of its stars in a big way Sunday, as the Washington Spirit's Trinity Rodman struck a game-winning goal against the Portland Thorns in her first match since April 12. Rodman, who battled back from a nagging back injury, scored in the second minute of second half stoppage time, catching a ball mid-bounce and firing it over keeper Mackenzie Arnold for the game-winner. Rodman missed the game as much as we missed her.

Nicole Fallert is a newsletter writer at Paste BN, sign up for the email here. Want to send Nicole a note? Shoot her an email at NFallert@usatoday.com.