Fact check: Viral post hugely overstates civilian casualties from 2011 NATO airstrikes in Libya

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The claim: NATO’s airstrikes over Libya in 2011 resulted in more than 500,000 civilian casualties

As foreign leaders prepare to meet in Brussels on March 24 to discuss the Russian invasion of Ukraine, some online have accused NATO of hypocrisy, sharing exaggerated statistics related to the alliance’s 2011 military intervention in Libya.

A network of Africa-based social media accounts asserts NATO launched more than 10,000 air raids on Libya that caused more than 500,000 civilian casualties. The posts include a photo purporting to show an airstrike in Libya.

“When NATO was questioned about civilian causalities and the death of Gaddafi children, they insisted that it was collateral damage and normal in wars,” reads a March 14 Facebook post from the page Happy Africans that generated more than 6,000 reactions in a week.

The claim comes amid calls from Ukrainian leaders for the U.S. to implement a no-fly zone over Ukraine, similar to what NATO enforced over Libya in 2011 to protect civilians from attacks during the country’s civil war.   

Similar versions of the claim circulated on Facebook and Twitter, where it was shared by accounts such as Africa Archives and the African Hub in posts that generated more than 60,000 likes combined.

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But estimates from human rights organizations and experts show the number of civilian casualties caused by NATO airstrikes in Libya is much less than half a million, as other independent fact-check organizations have reported. 

Paste BN reached out to the social media users who shared the posts for comment. 

Claim significantly overstates casualties

In March 2011, the U.N. Security Council passed a resolution authorizing “all necessary measures” to protect Libyan civilians from pro-Muammar Gaddafi forces, which included the enforcement of a no-fly zone.

During the conflict, NATO launched more than 9,700 airstrikes targeting specific military opposition targets to “protect civilians from attack or the threat of attack,” according to final mission stats released in November 2011.

A NATO official told Paste BN it was "the first air campaign in history where only precision-guided munitions were used."

"Everything possible was done to minimize the risk to civilians," a NATO official said in an emailed statement, calling the claim "completely bogus."

While NATO’s air campaign had a positive effect, the airstrikes inadvertently killed and injured dozens of civilians, according to several human rights organizations. But the number of casualties caused is nowhere near 500,000.

After extensive field investigations throughout Libya, Human Rights Watch found the NATO airstrikes killed at least 72 civilians, one-third being children under 18. Amnesty International, a non-governmental organization, documented 55 cases of named civilian deaths as the result of airstrikes.

Another December 2011 investigation by The New York Times found available evidence suggests “at least 40 civilians, and perhaps more than 70” were killed by NATO in attacks, and the victims included at least 29 women or children. 

Another organization reported a higher number, but still only a fraction of the 500,000 number in the post.

Chris Woods, co-founder of Airwars, which tracks claims of civilian harm in conflict zones, told Paste BN via email that the suggested tally of 500,000 casualties is not supported by Libyans themselves or in major investigations by any legitimate organization. 

Airwars published a report on the 10th anniversary of the conflict analyzing allegations of civilian harm in Libya in 2011 from all parties. Looking only at NATO actions, public Libyan records allege they caused 578 to 802 deaths. Out of those, Airwars found 223 to 403 civilian deaths were likely.

The data notes the death tally was “likely significantly higher” because local social media use was limited in Libya in 2011, there was little independent local media and local reports of civilian harm may have been lost.

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Further, the photo used in the claim is unrelated to the 2011 conflict in Libya. The image was photoshopped years ago to show a fictional scene of an Israeli F-15 at low altitude over Tehran, according to fact-checkers.