NOAA data shows US warming since 2005, contrary to claim | Fact check
The claim: US Climate Reference Network data shows 'no obvious warming' since 2005
A Nov. 29 Facebook post (direct link, archive link) shows a graph of U.S. Climate Reference Network temperature data from 2005 to 2024. The data in the graph is fairly scattered and it does not include a trend line.
"The U.S. Climate Reference Network record from 2005 shows no obvious warming during this period," reads part of the post's caption.
The post, which was shared more than 300 times in two weeks, links to an article that also shows the graph and makes the same claim.
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Our rating: False
U.S. Climate Reference Network data does show warming since 2005, continuing a trend that stretches back decades earlier.
US has warmed since 2005, according to Climate Reference Network data
The U.S. Climate Reference Network, which is managed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, is made up of more than 100 climate monitoring stations located in pristine and undeveloped locations across the U.S. The sensors haven't been moved and are not subject to urbanization effects, so the data does not require adjustment to account for these changes over time.
Contrary to the claim in the post, U.S. Climate Reference Network data does show an average annual warming trend from 2005-2023 − about 0.47 degrees per decade, Jake Fortune, a NOAA spokesperson, told Paste BN. This amount of warming is also documented by a larger dataset used by NOAA that includes more than 10,000 stations and extends back to 1895.
Because Earth's climate is subject to natural variability, Fortune emphasized that a 20-year period isn't considered a long enough period to "calculate a meaningful trend." The World Meteorological Organization, for example, uses a 30-year period to establish "climate normals."
"We prefer to use the entire period of record (in the larger dataset)," Fortune said. "It shows a warming trend of 0.16 degrees per decade," since 1895.
Unlike the U.S. Climate Reference Network data, this larger dataset includes data that is adjusted to account for urbanization, location changes and other data collection consistency issues, he said. Comparing trends between the adjusted and unadjusted datasets during overlapping years helps scientists confirm these adjustments are accurate.
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Average global temperatures have been rising for decades because greenhouse gas emissions generated by human activity have been accumulating in the atmosphere. The U.S. has warmed more quickly than the global average, according to the Environmental Protection Agency.
The Facebook user who posted the graph did not provide evidence to support the claim but directed Paste BN to the article linked in the post.
Our fact-check sources
- Jake Fortune, Dec. 10, Email exchange with Paste BN
- NOAA, accessed Dec. 11, U.S. Climate Reference Network
- ClimateData.ca, accessed Dec. 11, Importance of Using 30 Years of Data
- World Meteorological Organization, accessed Dec. 11, Climate
- NASA Vital Signs of the Planet, accessed Dec. 11, Causes
- Environmental Protection Agency, June 2024, Climate Change Indicators: U.S. and Global Temperature
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