Skip to main content

Antarctic sea ice extent comparison consistent with climate change | Fact check

Kate S. Petersen   Paste BN
play
Show Caption

The claim: Antarctic sea ice area maps show climate change is a hoax

A Dec. 26, 2024, Instagram post (direct link, archive link) shows maps of purported Antarctic sea ice extent, or area, from Dec. 24, 1979, and the same day in 2024. Text above the graphic says the extent was larger in 2024 than in 1979.

"Ice doesn't lie, but climate scientists do," reads text in the post, which was first shared on X.

Additional text reads, "More proof of the hoax." The X post was reposted 19,000 times.

More from the Fact-Check Team: How we pick and research claims | Email newsletter | Facebook page

Our rating: False

Climate change − a global phenomenon − can neither be confirmed nor disproven by comparing Antarctic sea ice extent on two individual days, according to researchers. Instead, scientists have used long-term data sets from all over the world to determine Earth's climate is changing rapidly as the result of human activity.

Arctic sea ice in decline, Antarctic sea ice less certain

The maps in the post match graphics that can be generated with the National Snow and Ice Data Center Sea Ice Analysis tool. Antarctic sea ice extent was higher on Dec. 24, 2024, than on that day in 1979, according to the agency's Charctic Interactive Sea Ice Graph − which reports five-day running averages.

However, Antarctic sea ice extent was higher in 1979 than in 2024 for most of the year, according to National Snow and Ice Data Center data. December is the only month in 2024 that had days where extents were higher than in 1979.

But even if all of 1979 had less ice than 2024, that would not show that climate change is a "hoax." This is because there is significant natural variability in Earth's climate systems, so researchers rely on long-term data sets to document climate change, not comparisons of two random days or years.

Drawing conclusions from a comparison of two individual days in a climate record is akin to "saying that it was raining on May 19, 1989, but then sunny on May 19, 2022, and therefore rain – at that particular location – has lessened or stopped entirely," Bonnie Light, the chair of the University of Washington Polar Science Center, previously told Paste BN.

More: 'Green' energy needs metal. Can we combat climate change while reducing mining impacts?

Another problem with the Instagram post is that, while climate change has clearly caused significant Arctic sea ice loss, Antarctic sea ice has been less clearly impacted, if at all. And while the post implies "climate scientists" have lied about this, NASA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Snow and Ice Data Center have all publicly reported this fact on their websites.

In early 2024, Walt Meier, a sea ice scientist at the National Snow and Ice Data Center, also told Paste BN that the trend in Antarctic sea ice had been effectively flat since the late 1970s.

"Global warming is, well, global," he said at the time. "In response to greenhouse gas emissions, the Earth as a whole is warming as expected − if not faster than expected. Within the global average, there is also expected to be a lot of variability. It doesn’t make sense that all regions are going to respond at the same pace."

However, the trend may be starting to change. A series of very low extents recorded over the last few years suggest that climate change may finally be starting to impact Antarctic sea ice, according to NASA.

Conclusive evidence that Earth's climate is changing

To document climate change, researchers haven't just studied one system in one part of the world, such as sea ice in Antarctica. Instead, scientists have documented long-term changes in many different climate systems across the globe.

In addition to long-term global atmospheric and marine warming trends, researchers have documented:

More: Can we count on renewable energy? Four ways wind, solar and water can power the US

Paste BN reached out to the Instagram user who shared the post for comment but did not immediately receive a response.

Our fact-check sources

Thank you for supporting our journalism. You can subscribe to our print edition, ad-free app or e-newspaper here.

Paste BN is a verified signatory of the International Fact-Checking Network, which requires a demonstrated commitment to nonpartisanship, fairness and transparency. Our fact-check work is supported in part by a grant from Meta.

Facebook Twitter Email