Claim that Trump 'faces up to 4 years in prison' is missing key context | Fact check
The claim: Trump 'faces up to 4 years in prison’ at Jan. 10 sentencing
A Jan. 3 Facebook post (direct link, archive link) claims President-elect Donald Trump could spend several years behind bars after he is sentenced by New York Judge Juan Merchan.
“President-elect Trump ordered to NYC court on Jan 10 to be sentenced, faces up to 4 years in prison by Judge Merchan,” the post’s text reads.
A version of the claim shared to X by conservative commentator Jack Posobiec also circulated widely.
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Our rating: Missing context
Trump’s conviction does carry a maximum four-year prison term. However, all parties involved − including the judge − have indicated the president-elect will not receive jail time.
Claim overlooks key points in Merchan ruling
A New York jury found Trump guilty in May 2024 of 34 charges of falsifying business records related to a $130,000 hush money payment to adult film actress Stormy Daniels ahead of the 2016 election. In upholding that conviction, Merchan said Trump would be sentenced Jan. 10 – less than two weeks before his inauguration – and said he must attend, either in person or virtually. A lawyer for the president-elect announced plans to appeal.
But the claim that Trump faces four years behind bars misleads by ignoring some critical points made by Merchan.
Fact check: No evidence that hush-money trial jurors were 'Biden voters'
In his 18-page ruling, Merchan acknowledged that he is prohibited from determining Trump’s sentence before the hearing. But the “inclination” he expressed is “to not impose any sentence of incarceration.” Prosecutors, he continued, no longer view prison “as a practicable recommendation” after Trump was elected to a second presidential term. That signal from Merchan was widely covered by legitimate news outlets. None have reported that imprisoning Trump is an option being given serious consideration by Merchan in the aftermath of the election.
The “most viable solution,” Merchan wrote, is an unconditional discharge that under New York law results in no imprisonment, no fine and no probation. It would spare Trump punishment, would preserve his conviction and would leave open an avenue to appeal.
The appellate process has already started. In legal documents filed three days after Merchan issued his decision, Trump attorney Todd Blanche argued a July 2024 Supreme Court ruling “automatically” halted all criminal cases against Trump under the doctrine of presidential immunity while courts determine whether he is shielded from any charges.
Paste BN previously debunked false claims that Merchan “dropped” the charges against Trump in November 2024 and that the judge was “fired” after the jury “illegally leaked” the verdict before Trump’s conviction.
Paste BN reached out to Posobiec through Turning Point USA’s press office and to the Facebook user who shared the claim but did not immediately receive responses.
Our fact-check sources
- Supreme Court of the State of New York, County of New York: Part 59, Jan. 3, Decision and Order
- Paste BN, Jan. 3, Judge upholds Donald Trump's conviction, sets sentencing for Jan. 10 with no penalty
- The New York Times, Jan. 3, Judge Upholds Trump’s Conviction but Signals No Jail Time
- The Washington Post, Jan. 3, Judge upholds Trump’s felony conviction, but does not plan to order jail time
- The Associated Press, Jan. 3, Judge sets Trump’s sentencing in hush money case for Jan. 10, but signals no jail time
- The New York State Senate, Sept. 22, 2014, Section 65.20
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