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Analysis of sea ice on one December day doesn't disprove climate change | Fact check

Kate S. Petersen   Paste BN
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The claim: Polar sea ice extents show climate change is a 'scam'

A Dec. 23, 2024, Facebook post (direct link, archive link) shows a map of Antarctic sea ice extent, or area, with color coding that purportedly shows ice gain and loss between Dec. 21, 2016, and Dec. 21, 2024.

"I love data," the caption reads. "'Sea ice extent at both poles today is higher than eight years ago. Antarctic sea ice extent is up 17% from this date in 2016' Is the (mainstream media) talking about this? Climate Scam!"

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Our rating: False

The post is wrong about Arctic sea ice and climate change. On Dec. 21, 2024, the Antarctic sea ice extent was higher than on Dec. 21, 2016, but the Arctic sea ice extent was lower on that date in 2024 compared to 2016, according to government data. Regardless, long-term datasets show Earth’s climate is warming, and a comparison of polar sea ice extents on two random days does not provide enough information to confirm or disprove this trend.

Climate change documented by analysis of diverse long-term datasets

Antarctic sea ice extent was about 18% higher on Dec. 21, 2024, than on that date in 2016, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center Charctic Interactive Sea Ice Graph − which reports five-day running averages. This is similar to the estimate in the post.

Arctic sea ice extent was lower on Dec. 21, 2024, compared to that date in 2016 − contrary to the claim made in the post. But even if sea ice had been higher in 2024 at both poles, that wouldn't show climate change is a "scam."

Sea ice extents vary from day to day and year to year due to weather, Paste BN previously reported. Because of this, researchers analyze long-term data sets to detect sea ice trends − they don't just compare random days.

"Picking single days out of two different years in a climate record is not informative," Bonnie Light, the chair of the University of Washington Polar Science Center, previously told Paste BN. "It would be analogous to saying that it was raining on May 19, 1989, but then sunny on May 19, 2022, and therefore rain – at that particular location – has lessened or stopped entirely."

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Another problem with the Facebook post is that climate change cannot be confirmed or refuted based solely on the behavior of polar sea ice.

Instead, researchers have confirmed that Earth's climate is changing based on data collected from climate systems across the Earth. In addition to long-term atmospheric and marine warming trends, scientists have documented:

Arctic sea ice decline, Antarctic sea ice trend flat overall

Researchers have also documented a significant overall decline in Arctic sea ice extents since the late 1970s.

Antarctic sea ice extents have fluctuated significantly, but a clear long-term downward trend has not yet emerged.

"Global warming is, well, global," Walt Meier, a senior research scientist at the National Snow and Ice Data Center, previously told Paste BN. "In response to greenhouse gas emissions, the Earth as a whole is warming as expected − if not faster than expected. Within the global average, there is also expected to be a lot of variability. It doesn’t make sense that all regions are going to respond at the same pace."

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The Facebook post implies the mainstream media neglected to report that Antarctic sea ice extent was larger on Dec. 21, 2024, than it was on Dec. 21, 2016, for nefarious reasons. However, Paste BN found numerous examples of mainstream media outlets reporting on shorter-term Antarctic sea ice extent increases over the years, including National Geographic, The Washington Post, Barrons, Slate and various local outlets.

Paste BN has also published at least seven stories in the last four years reporting that Antarctic sea ice has not yet demonstrated a clear long-term downward trend in response to climate change.

Paste BN was unable to reach the Facebook user who shared the post for comment.

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