Map shows rising wildfire threat across the U.S.: See if you're affected
As thousands of people fled from fires that tore through Los Angeles County this month, you may have wondered about the wildfire risk in your area.
While wildfires have primarily been associated with western states, including massive fires in California in 2020 or in Oregon last year, an analysis of FEMA data reveals significant fire risks in unexpected areas.
Paste BN analyzed data from the Federal Emergency Management Agency to determine how many people live in high-risk areas and identify the location of these communities.
FEMA's index calculates wildfire risk based on a community's expected annual fire losses, assigning ratings from very low to very high. A "very high" risk area means it has significantly higher scores compared to the rest of the country.
The analysis found that around 3.3 million people in the U.S. live in areas where the wildfire risk is “very high," while another 14.8 million live in areas with "relatively high” risk.
Most of the population at high risk resides in metropolitan areas. While densely populated areas in California dominate these high-risk zones, the threat isn’t limited to the state.
The top three metropolitan areas with the most people in “very high” wildfire risk areas are all in California: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, and Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim. Together, these metros have about 1.2 million residents in “very high” wildfire risk areas.
Parts of metros in Utah, Florida, Idaho, Arizona, Colorado and Nevada are also very high-risk zones. For example, about 58% of St. George, Utah’s 180,000 residents live in a “very high” wildfire risk area.
Beyond metropolitan areas, FEMA maps show high-risk places in states not typically associated with wildfires, such as Florida, West Virginia and New Jersey.
Two things that have changed in the last couple of decades are contributing to the threat.
Many parts of the country have become hotter, drier and subject to “flash droughts” that dry things out quickly. And an ever-increasing number of people want to live in or near wildlands that evolved to burn.
Even as the risk rises, Americans have flocked to “very high” wildfire risk areas in significant numbers. Population growth in metros with people in areas of high wildfire risk increased by roughly 70% between 1990 and 2020 whereas the population in the average American metro area increased by about 40%.
A recent government report noted a rapid rise in homeowners' insurance costs, with climate change making it harder for homeowners and insurers. Research has shown human-caused climate change has already led to more frequent and bigger wildfires – a trend expected to continue. FEMA’s data reflects this: The agency's projections show that no county is expected to see a decrease in wildfire risk by the mid and late century.