Growers: USDA's orange crop forecast doesn't account for Irma
NAPLES, Fla. — Florida's citrus growers are questioning the U.S. Department of Agriculture's initial forecast for the state's next orange crop, saying it's too high after the serious damage the industry sustained from Hurricane Irma.
The USDA released the much-anticipated estimate Thursday, putting the crop size for all oranges at 54 million boxes for the 2017-18 season. That's down 21% from last year — when growers produced about 68.7 million boxes — and it would be the lowest yield since 1946-47.
However, based on its survey of growers, Florida Citrus Mutual, the state's largest citrus growers association, predicted a crop size closer to 31 million boxes, more than 20 million boxes fewer than the USDA's estimate.
One state citrus agent called the USDA's higher estimate concerning because it could mean lower prices and might give the impression the industry was not as devastated by the hurricane, leading to less federal aid.
More: Florida officials issue dire warning: rescue citrus industry or find your orange juice elsewhere
In a news release, Florida Citrus Mutual said it believed the USDA "could not accurately account for the full extent of the catastrophic damage from Hurricane Irma" and that the government agency historically had "a high margin of error in crop years with a natural disaster."
"I'm disappointed the USDA did not delay the traditional October crop estimate until more data could be collected to fully assess the damage wrought by Irma," said Michael Sparks, executive vice president and CEO of Florida Citrus Mutual, in a statement. "Irma hit us just a month ago and although we respect the skills and professionalism of the USDA, there is no way they can put out a reliable number in that short period of time."
Others described the USDA's estimate as ludicrous, inaccurate and way too high.
Mike Illenberg, a spokesman for the USDA, said the report confirms that Irma affected Florida's citrus industry severely.
"Estimated orange production in Florida is down 30% year over year," he said. "Florida grapefruit is down 37%. The industry has been suffering from citrus greening as well, so the impact of the hurricane on the sector is particularly hard to bear."
In addition to oranges, the USDA's Florida forecast includes 4.9 million boxes of grapefruit and 1 million boxes of specialty fruit.
Florida's citrus growers have struggled to turn a profit for years because of the tree-killing citrus greening disease, which first showed up in Florida in 2005. Growing costs have more than doubled as growers have changed their cultural practices to aggressively fight the disease.
More: Citrus industry feels squeeze from Irma, waits for help
After many seasons of declines, growers had hoped for a better year. A widely watched private estimate by Elizabeth Steger, a Kissimmee, Fla.-based consultant, pegged the 2017-18 crop size at 75.5 million boxes before the hurricane, which would have been a nearly 10% increase over last year.
"We know growers who thought that was low, that thought we would be pushing 80 million boxes," said Andrew Meadows, a spokesman for Florida Citrus Mutual.
Much of the work for the USDA's estimate was done before the hurricane, he said.
"There is fruit dropping as we speak. So it's not a snapshot in time. Irma really threw a wrench into everything," Meadows said.
After announcing the estimate, Candice Erick, agricultural statistics administrator with the Florida Agricultural Statistics Service, said a tree inventory and limb count were completed before the hurricane. Fruit size measurements and drop counts done before Irma were repeated after the storm to come up with a more accurate estimate, she said.
Erick said there was more fruit per tree and that fruit sizes were larger, good news for growers who weren't as affected by the storm.
Irma walloped citrus crops in Florida's five top-producing citrus counties: DeSoto, Hardee, Hendry, Highlands and Polk. Groves in Collier and Hendry were especially hard-hit.
More: Orange juice prices may soon shock you
The USDA's higher estimate is a concern to growers because it could mean lower prices for their fruit and it may give the impression that they weren't hit as hard by the hurricane, which could hurt efforts to get federal aid the citrus industry needs to recover from Irma, said Mongi Zekri, a multicounty citrus agent for the University of Florida/Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences.
Florida lawmakers are fighting for $2.5 billion in federal relief for agriculture, including nearly $761 million for citrus to cover the losses across the state.
While Florida Gov. Rick Scott has activated a $25 million Florida Citrus Emergency Loan Program to support citrus growers, it's not enough to help them recover, Zekri said.
"It's going to be a loan," he said. "They are really waiting for aid, for help, that they don't have to pay back."
There's a lot of work to be done to clean up, to treat and to rebuild groves, which will be costly, Zekri pointed out.
More: Citrus growers in Florida project 35% crop loss from Irma
Ron Hamel, executive vice president of the Gulf Citrus Growers Association, was with growers hard hit by Irma for the announcement of the first estimate for the upcoming season.
"We are certainly going to be suffering a lot more damage than what the initial estimate indicated," Hamel said.
The citrus crop estimate will be updated monthly until the end of the season in July, so it's in no way final.
The USDA's initial all-orange forecast for the United States is 4.34 million tons for the 2017-18 season, down 16% from last year. That includes the expected output in California and Texas.
"California production is part of that story too, and so overall U.S. production is not down by as much as the Florida losses," said Illenberg, with the USDA.
Follow Laura Layden on Twitter: @NDN_LLayden
More: Hurricane Irma's wrath will mean grower losses, higher grocery bills