After Hurricane Ian, Florida forced to rethink its cycle of rebuilding

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FORT MYERS, Fla. – Chrissy Coffey and her family bought their home on Fort Myers Beach nine months ago. After Hurricane Ian hit, all that was left standing were pieces of the turquoise walls. She was at a loss for words.

"I don’t know if there’s any rebuilding to be done, but this is home. We’re not leaving,” she said.

Coffey is one of tens of thousands facing a level of destruction that is expected to go down in history as Florida's costliest hurricane and the deadliest since 1935.

The death count has topped 100 and is still climbing. Property damage from the storm tore a path of destruction and misery across the entire peninsula could reach $80 billion, including private insurance and National Flood Insurance Program claims.

In Lee County alone where Ian made landfall, more than 5,000 homes were destroyed, and nearly 42,500 others were damaged or affected in some way. A preliminary damage assessment used stark language to describe the loss: "only foundation remains" and "house is gone, some of it across the street."

And yet the word on everyone's lips from President Joe Biden to Gov. Ron DeSantis: Rebuild.

"The key here is building back better and stronger to withstand the next storm," Biden said as he and DeSantis surveyed the remnants of Fort Myers Beach's Fisherman's Wharf a week and a day after Ian hit Sept. 28.

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It’s a response driven by emotions, economics and habit. And it's part of a costly and potentially dangerous cycle that shows no signs of ending: Floridians rebuild only to do it all over again after the next hurricane hits. Four years ago, it was Michael. Now, Ian.

Sunshine State residents know it's when, not if, the next one strikes.

"This hurricane certainly wasn't unexpected. For anyone to think Florida wouldn't be hit by a hurricane, it's magical thinking," said Dennis Smith, planner-in-residence at Florida State University's department of urban and regional planning. 

Can the cycle of misery ever be broken?

Experts say it's possible, but only if lessons learned from Ian result in meaningful changes. Their recommendations include encouraging development farther away from the coasts, requiring higher elevations for foundations, and restoring more natural defenses against storm surges and flooding, such as the planting of mangrove trees and providing more green space as opposed to paved lots. 

It's a task that's easier said than done. Here's a look at the mounting challenges facing Florida as it struggles to be better prepared for hurricanes in the future.

Growing Florida population puts more in harm's way

Hurricane Charley cut nearly the same path through Florida as Ian 18 years ago. It caused $24.6 billion in damage and 29 deaths – a fraction of Ian's toll.  

Charley was a more compact hurricane, but there are other significant differences.

"The increased property damage caused by Ian is in part because of the increase in population since then and the increase in replacement costs," said Mark Friedlander, a spokesman for the Insurance Information Institute. "We have more residents than ever living in harm's way."  

Florida's population now numbers nearly 22 million, according to the U.S. Census Bureau, which counted an average increase of roughly 530 newcomers a day from April 1, 2020, to July 1, 2021.

"More than 80% of Floridians live within 10 miles of the coast," said Friedlander, who lives not far from the ocean in north St. Johns County. "This is where people want to live: near the beach, near the ocean or Gulf, despite the potential hazards."

Those are also the areas most vulnerable to hurricanes and flooding.

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Looking to rebuild in too many of the wrong places?

Money plays a big part in why so many luxury homes and high-rise condos continue to be built in high-risk coastal areas.

"Florida has 410 municipalities, of which 211 have land that will be affected by sea level rise," said Linda Shi, assistant professor of city and regional planning at Cornell University. "The ones that are geographically small and with the highest density, many of them are on barrier islands, which have the highest dependence on property taxes."

In a perfect world, Shi said, communities would steer development to areas farther away from the coast and on higher ground out of flood zones. For small coastal cities, there is little, if any, land like that available.

There's also the matter of incentives, or rather the lack of them.

"Municipalities know if it's a big enough disaster, the federal government will step in," Shi said. "Why would (small coastal cities) forgo yearly revenue (from property taxes) because of future disasters that, if they happen, would only cost them 25 cents on the dollar?"

Holly Hill is a small municipality in Volusia County, roughly a mile west of the Atlantic Ocean and an hour drive north of where Ian exited Florida. It is not on a barrier island, but it is in a low-lying area next to the Halifax River, the intracoastal waterway that separates Daytona Beach's mainland from its beachside.

Ian triggered extensive flooding in Holly Hill. The flood waters along the city's Riverside Drive rose more than 4 feet when the Halifax River overflowed its banks during high tide. More than half of the 4½-square-mile city is within a 100-year floodplain.

Holly Hill Mayor Chris Via lives farther inland but said his street was flooded, too. "It stopped right before our garage."

One of Holly Hill's challenges, he said, is that it was incorporated in 1901, long before there were building codes.

Flooding during Ian was among the worst Holly Hill residents have ever seen. "We recorded 24 inches of water that fell on the city within a 48-hour period," said Holly Hill City Planner Brian Walker.

Money also influences decisions on a statewide level. As a state with no income tax, Florida relies on property taxes as a major source of revenue.

The Florida Home Builders Association last year led a lobbying effort to place a statewide cap on how much cities and counties can raise impact fees for new development. The bill's overwhelming 94-23 approval in the state House showed "the power of the construction lobbyists," said state Rep. Anna Eskamani, a Democrat from Orlando, in an interview last year.

'Still have work to do'

Ian exited Florida near the Brevard County city of Cape Canaveral around 11 a.m. Sept. 29 as a tropical storm with 65 mph sustained winds. Brevard had some flooding and wind damage, but nothing like what Ian caused on Florida's southwest coast 20 hours earlier when it made landfall near Cayo Costa in Lee County.

Slamming southwest Florida as a high-end Category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 150 mph, Ian tied the record for the fifth-strongest hurricane on record to strike the United States. It tossed boats into jumbled piles as if they were children's toys, tore roofs off homes and sent storm surges as high as 18 feet through barrier island neighborhoods.

Paul Alfrey, mayor of Melbourne in Brevard County, knows that next time it very well could be his community that takes the direct hit.

"We've gotten comfortable dodging the bullet, but they didn't dodge the bullet," he said, referring to the Fort Myers/Naples area that includes Cayo Costa.

Cape Canaveral Mayor Wes Morrison said Florida communities "still have some work to do" figuring out how to reduce the damage from future storms.

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Morrison said he would like to see incentives offered, such as tax credits, to encourage property owners to make their homes and businesses more storm-resistant and less prone to flooding.

Even simple things – like allowing parking on grass rather than requiring paved parking lots – could improve drainage, he said.

"These storms remind us quickly how we do development wrong," Morrison said.

Alfrey sees the issues regarding hurricane damage from several angles. In addition to serving as Melbourne's mayor, he is a roofing contractor, an insurance agent and a state-certified home inspector.

State building codes were strengthened after Hurricane Andrew hit South Florida as a Category 5 hurricane in 1992. That has helped more homes and buildings withstand low to moderate hurricane-force winds.

But there's not much that can be done to protect people and structures from storm surges and flooding of Hurricane Ian's magnitude, other than banning development near the coast, Alfrey said. He opposes that step because he is an advocate of private property rights.

"You're living in paradise, and there's a cost for living in paradise," he said.

Soaring property, flood insurance rates result in fewer insured against storms

When Ian hit Florida, only 20% of the homes in its path were covered by flood insurance.

The Sunshine State also has the highest percentage of homeowners without property insurance: 12%, the worst in the country, according to Friedlander. The national average is 5%.

"This is due to many retirees who pay cash for their homes when moving to Florida, as well as many homeowners who have paid off their mortgage and are not required to carry insurance," the Insurance Information Institute spokesman said. "We obviously recommend against this approach, as home insurance provides an essential level of financial protection. A hurricane as catastrophic as Ian can be financially devastating."

Citizens Property Insurance Corp. was created by the Florida Legislature as the "insurer of last resort" for just such scenarios. It writes insurance policies only for properties that private insurers either won't cover or won't provide appropriately affordable coverage for.

Citizens was approaching 1.1 million policies, up from 511,000 two years ago, when Ian hit, confirmed spokesman Michael Peltier. "In the four weeks before Hurricane Ian, we were averaging close to 9,000 (new) policies a week," he said.

Citizens limits its replacement cost coverage to homes and condos under $700,000, with the exception of Miami-Dade and Monroe counties, where coverage is capped at just under $1 million.

Will Ian spur an even greater increase in Floridians turning to Citizens? 

“We’ll see," Peltier said. "It’s too early to tell. But this (Ian) certainly doesn’t help.”

Before Ian, 27 out of the 60 private providers of homeowners insurance in Florida were on the federal regulators' watch list for companies in danger of becoming financially insolvent.

The astronomical property losses from Ian could push more insurers over the edge.

“In all likelihood, Ian will result in less choice of insurance (providers) and much more expense cost of insurance if you choose to live in these high-risk areas," Friedlander said. "Potentially, you may not be insurable."

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Rising real estate values creates additional challenges

An analysis by the First Street Foundation found that 48,000 Florida homeowners canceled their flood insurance policies in the months leading up to Ian. The cancellations came after insurance rates rose when the Federal Emergency Management Agency rolled out its new rating system a year ago.

There is a limit of $250,000 on the flood insurance payout from the National Flood Insurance Program.

That's a problem, considering the high cost of real estate in Florida, said Craig Poulton, CEO of Poulton Associates, a Utah-based private provider of flood insurance that administers the Natural Catastrophe Insurance Program.

The insurance payouts offered by FEMA don't come close to meeting actual replacement costs of many of the Florida homes destroyed by Hurricane Ian.

In the Fort Myers/Cape Coral area, single-family home sale prices averaged $435,000 during the first eight months of 2022. Townhouse and condo sale prices averaged $328,000.

Poulton said he would like to see new rules for residential development along hurricane-prone coastlines to reduce the risk of flooding. His suggestions include requiring the first floor of a home 1 mile or less from the shoreline to be at least 7 feet above sea level.

FEMA has a property buyout program called the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program to encourage people to leave high-risk flood areas. Since the program's inception in 1989, nearly 17,000 properties have been bought out in Florida, the most of any state.

That might sound like a lot, but it's just a drop in the bucket compared to the number of properties in high-risk areas. And new oceanfront homes and condos still being built as Florida's population growth continues.

The Hazard Mitigation Grant Program's effectiveness is limited by the $350,000 cap on the amount the federal government is willing to pay for property buyouts, according to Shi, the Cornell University professor. "There is discussion about FEMA's buyout program being too small," she said.

More hurricanes are getting wetter, bigger

Hurricane Ian was described by experts as a "500-year water event," but major floods could become frequent because tropical cyclones are producing more rain, according to Kevin Reed, associate professor of atmospheric sciences at Stony Brook University.

Reed wrote a study published this year that examined hurricane data from the past 150 years. It showed a steady increase in rainfall generated by tropical cyclones regardless of how many there are in a given year.

As Florida begins rebuilding communities destroyed by Ian, "we have to have better ways to address what the next Ian in 20 years would look like, because it's only going to get wetter," he said. "Human nature is to make fixes based on what just happened. That's why we're in this loop, but the next Ian is not going to be the same."

Post-Ian, Vincent Keeys, president of the NAACP in Collier County, told the Naples City Council that the hard-hit River Park neighborhood, east of U.S. 41,  must be rebuilt better to protect residents from storm surge and flooding. 

He said 4 to 6 feet of water flowed through the community, causing "catastrophic damage" to homes. During the storm, emergency responders took some residents to higher ground, leaving them in a parking garage at Coastland Center, the only enclosed regional shopping mall in the Naples area. 

"Please make the changes and please move rapidly to protect that community. It's vibrant. It's alive and it is the oldest Black historical community we have," Keeys said at a recent City Council meeting, suggesting the possibility of a new seawall. "So I'm asking you to protect it."

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How Floridians can protect themselves from the next storm

Those looking for a one-size-fits-all solution are bound to be disappointed.

"There is no one prescription to take to make the pain go away," said John Dickson, president of Aon Edge Insurance, a Montana-based private provider of flood insurance. "We need an increased focus on our land-use practices, where do we let people build and how they build."

Dickson said there are nuggets of hope to be found from Hurricane Ian as well as Hurricane Michael, which flattened the Florida Panhandle community of Mexico Beach four years ago.

"Think about that one house in Mexico Beach that withstood Hurricane Michael. It didn't have a scratch on it," he said. "Not everybody can afford to do the things they did to harden that structure, but that's an example of building a structure suitable for today's times."

The owners told The New York Times in a story in October 2018 that they built their house to withstand 250 mph winds, fashioned from poured concrete and reinforced by steel cables and rebar. It was built on 40-foot-tall pilings to keep it well above storm surges. The house also had breakaway siding designed to tear free without ripping off any more of the structure. 

Dickson also pointed to a more recent example: a community built inland, 12 miles northeast of Fort Myers, called Babcock Ranch that was powered by a solar farm. Babcock Ranch did not lose power during Ian.

"I'm a firm believer in the ability of people to rise above and become more resilient," Dickson said. 

Roy Wright, CEO of the Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety, is a former FEMA official who oversaw the National Flood Insurance Program for many years. His bio says he is “convinced that the continuing cycle of human suffering that strikes families and communities in the wake of severe weather can be broken.”

Wright said he was encouraged that homes in Ian's path built to the more stringent post-Andrew building codes "performed well." The problem was that only 30% were built to those standards.

Ideally, homes would be built farther away from the coastlines, he acknowledged. But you can't force people to live farther inland.

“When it comes to Americans and their private properties, I’m a realist," Wright said. "These are individual homeowners and property owners who have decisions to make. I don’t know that the federal government is ever in a place constitutionally to force a different answer."

What else can be done to help Floridian homes weather future hurricanes? Experts recommended:

• Build foundations at least three feet higher than projected 100-year flood high water marks.
• Require sealed roof decks under the shingles or tiles to prevent water intrusion
• Seeking nature-based solutions to protect against storm surges and reduce wave action such as planting oyster beds, restoring dunes, protecting mangroves

Will we heed Hurricane Ian's lessons? "It's Florida. You tell me," Shi sai. "Maybe. But its also possible that nothing will change."

Some, though, have had enough and are resisting the urge to recreate what Ian took from them. 

Cindy Smith rented a manufactured home in the Sarasota city of North Port before Hurricane Ian flooded her dwelling. One week after Ian swept through, Smith was still sheltering at an area high school with 225 others who also lost their homes.

"I've lost my house. I've lost my car," she said. "I've got nowhere to go."

Her answer to what's next? 

Buy a mobile home. “That way I can flee,” she said.

Clayton Park is the business editor of The Daytona Beach News-Journal, and Dave Berman is the business editor of FLORIDA TODAY, both part of the Paste BN Network. Contributing: Mariah Timms of the (Fort Myers) News-Press, Derek Gilliam of the Sarasota Herald-Tribune and Laura Layden of the Naples Daily News.