Rain forecasts bring relief as California fires blaze, but there's a chance of mudslides
Much-needed rain is expected across drought-stricken and wildfire-ravaged areas of Southern California this weekend, weather officials said, but with it comes the threat of mudslides and a new set of problems.
"Just about every location in coastal Southern California, as well as the Southern California mountains, should get in on some showers this weekend," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dave Houk in an online forecast Wednesday.
A 60% to 80% chance of thunderstorms is anticipated in the area beginning Saturday, which could bring up to two inches of rainfall, Ryan Kittell, a meteorologist for the National Weather Service's office for Los Angeles, told Paste BN Wednesday.
If all goes according to the forecasts, it could be the most significant rainfall downtown Los Angeles has seen since Christmas Eve when only 0.02 of an inch fell, he said.
"It's difficult to project right now. We'll have to see how things will evolve as the projected honest range of rain is from nothing to two inches," Kittell said. "The best estimate of measurable rainfall will be throughout Sunday as the most likely outcome is half an inch - or less."
A 'slight chance' of debris flow, mudslides
While the rain should provide a much-needed break for fire crews, it could also increase the potential for flash flooding and debris flows on torched hillsides, Kittell added.
He said there’s about "a 10% slight chance of more significant rain totals," and heavier rain over a burn scar ups the risk of debris flow.
"It’s a low threat for more rain, but it's not at zero," Kittell said. "It’s something we have to pay attention to, especially those affected by the Eaton Fire in Pasadena and Altadena."
As a result, Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass issued an executive order to hasten cleanup efforts and mitigate the impacts of possible "toxic runoff."
Bass' executive order hopes "to shore up burn areas and stem the flow of toxic debris" and "prevent additional damage to areas already ravaged by fire and also to protect our watershed, beaches and ocean from toxic runoff."
The order called for the installation of barriers, debris removal and the diversion of runoff from the city's storm water system to its sewer system, where the water can be treated.
While the pending rain will help to settle the dust and clear particulates out of the air, AccuWeather warned ash and other chemicals on the roads, combined with rainfall, could create slick conditions on some streets and highways.
AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok said the next chance for significant rain in the region over the next six weeks could be around Feb. 10-23.
"If appreciable rain doesn’t fall during that stretch, it may turn dry into much of March, further exacerbating the wildfire situation," Pastelok said.
Kittell said there's "a range of outcomes" that could occur with the rain.
"We can't afford to let our guard down, there are still a few unknowns so it doesn’t hurt to be prepared," Kittell said. "We're going to be in this situation with debris flows, flooding and mudslides for the next year or two any time the threat of rain comes."
Fire containment climbs while red flag warnings remain
The predicted precipitation comes as thousands of firefighters continue battling wildfires across 45 square miles in densely populated Los Angeles County. Cal Fire reports the two largest blazes, the Palisades Fire and the Eaton Fire are at 68% and 91% containment, respectively. The wildfires have destroyed more than 15,000 structures, and killed at least 28 people.
Elsewhere in the region, fires continued to erupt. On Wednesday afternoon, firefighters were battling new blazes, including a quick-growing brush fire that prompted evacuations in the Santa Clarita Valley. Another, northwest of Los Angeles called the Hughes Fire, grew more than 500 acres in just over an hour.
The Hughes fire forced about 31,000 people under mandatory evacuation orders while another 23,000 were under evacuation warnings, Los Angeles County Sheriff Robert Luna said Wednesday. Cal Fire said Thursday the rapidly spreading blaze had burned more than 10,000 acres and was 14% contained.
"Firefighters are making progress in containing the Hughes fire, but the event serves as a critical example of how quickly wildfires can escalate and the importance of ongoing vigilance and preparedness," said Firas Saleh, Moody's director of North American Wildfire Models, who compared the Hughes fire to the size of New York City.
With the severe drought conditions and low humidity, Red flag warnings remain in effect until Thursday as an expected spike in Santa Ana winds with gusts up to 50 mph and isolated gusts of 75 mph are predicted for mountainous areas, the weather service's Kittrell said.
"If fire ignition occurs, conditions are favorable for extreme fire behavior and rapid fire growth, which would threaten life and property," a red flag warning from the weather service said.