Astronomers find asteroid with 1% chance of hitting Earth: Should we be worried?
Asteroid 2024 YR4's non-zero probability of hitting Earth merits attention from astronomers, but here's why it shouldn't cause you to panic.
An asteroid recently spotted in the cosmos with a non-zero chance of hitting Earth in the coming years may have caused some alarm.
Don't freak out – yet.
Yes, the asteroid has little more than a 1% probability of slamming into Earth in 2032. And yes, that makes it the only one of more-than 37,000 known large space rocks near Earth with such odds.
But astronomers who are keeping a close eye on the asteroid, dubbed 2024 YR4, expect that the probability will more than likely fall to zero as more observations and data about its flight path come in.
“It is rare to have an asteroid with a non-zero probability of hitting Earth,” Heidi Hammel, vice president of the Planetary Society’s board of directors, said in a press release about the asteroid. “At this point, astronomers have measured the object’s orbit, and further observations will refine that orbit to give us a more precise understanding of its potential danger."
Here's what to know about the asteroid 2024 YR4 and it's chances of hitting Earth:
How did astronomers detect the asteroid?
Asteroid 2024 YR4 was spotted late last year by the NASA-funded Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System, or ATLAS. The system includes four telescopes around the world that hunt near-Earth objects, and its telescope in Chile was the one to make the find.
The object was then first reported on Dec. 27, 2024 to the Minor Planet Center, the official authority for observing and reporting new asteroids, comets and other small bodies in the solar system, according to NASA.
It wasn't until a few days later that the object caught the attention of NASA and other astronomers when it rose on the U.S. Space Agency's Sentry Impact Risk Table. A program under the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in California, Sentry tracks any known asteroids that have a non-zero probability of hitting Earth.
The asteroid is also on the European Space Agency's NEO impact Risk List.
When could 2024 YR4 hit Earth, and should we be concerned?
Based on projections, the asteroid has little more than a 1% chance of impacting Earth on Dec. 22, 2032.
For context, 2024 YR4 rates at a 3 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale. The scale, which ranges from 0 (no chance of impact) to 10 (a collision is certain and would cause worldwide devastation,) is a method for astronomers to categorize and rate the threat of near-Earth objects.
Ratings of 1 on the Torino scale are fairly common among newly discovered asteroids, but follow-up observations have always reduced that rating to 0, according to the Planetary Society. Asteroid 2024 YR4’s rating of 3 may be the second-highest an asteroid has ever reached after the notorious Apophis briefly hit a rating of 4 many years ago, but future data is expected to drop its impact probability down.
In short, while the asteroid merits attention from astronomers and public officials, it shouldn't keep you up at night.
How big is 2024 YR4?
The asteroid is estimated to be about 130 to 300 feet wide.
Data suggests that the asteroid has an elongated shape, while measurements at visible wavelengths suggest it may be stony in composition, according to the Planetary Society.
What damage would happen if the asteroid impacted Earth?
If it did collide with Earth, an asteroid of that size could cause an explosion in the atmosphere or even create an impact crater, according to the Planetary Society.
Both possibilities would likely cause devastating damage on the ground, though not enough for it to be a mass extinction event.
How would NASA, space agencies protect Earth from inbound space rocks?
Within the last few years, NASA and the world's space agencies have taken steps to build a defense to protect humanity from threats posed by asteroids and other inbound space rocks, such as comets.
In September 2022, NASA demonstrated that it was possible to nudge an incoming asteroid out of harm's way by slamming a spacecraft into it as part of its Double Asteroid Redirection Test. Launched in November 2021, DART traveled for more than 10 months before crashing into Dimorphos, which posed no threat to Earth.
A craft from the European Space Agency is now on the way to get an up-close look at the asteroid's remnants.
In the coming years, both NASA and the ESA have designs on sending uncrewed spacecraft to observe an infamous asteroid named Apophis, which caused some concern two decades ago when it was discovered hurtling too close for comfort toward Earth. The asteroid is projected in 2029 to pass harmlessly by Earth.
The U.S. space agency's Planetary Defense Coordination Office, established in 2016, also catalogs near-Earth objects that could crash into the planet.
NASA is additionally working on an asteroid-hunting telescope known as the NEO Surveyor to find near-Earth objects capable of causing significant damage. Set to launch no earlier than June 2028, the telescope is designed to discover 90% of asteroids and comets that are 460 feet in size or larger and come within 30 million miles of Earth’s orbit.
Eric Lagatta covers breaking and trending news for Paste BN. Reach him at elagatta@gannett.com