Odds of 'city killer' asteroid 2024 YR4 fall once again, now to 0.28%, NASA says
- NASA has been monitoring the asteroid and providing updates on its trajectory.
- While the asteroid is relatively small, it could still cause significant damage if it were to hit Earth.
- The asteroid is expected to be visible from Earth through April, allowing astronomers to gather more data.
The odds of asteroid 2024 YR4 striking Earth have fallen once again, now to 0.28%.
NASA's announcement Thursday is far lower than the estimated 3.1% chance that NASA set on Tuesday, a record high for an object the size of YR4 or larger. The asteroid is 130 to 300 feet wide.
Overnight observations by the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies dropped the likelihood of impact once again, after already dropping on Wednesday to 1.5% percent.
“NASA’s planetary defense teams will continue to monitor the asteroid to improve our predictions of the asteroid’s trajectory,” NASA said in a Thursday blog post.
NASA didn't update the odds again on Friday.
Although good news for Earth, NASA says the new data increases the chances of an asteroid impact with the Moon to 1%.
The asteroid will continue to be visible from Earth through April, giving astronomers some time to gather data with ground-based telescopes. While the asteroid won't again be observable from Earth until June 2028, NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope will be able to study it in March from orbit.
What are the odds of 2024 YR4 hitting Earth?
The asteroid 2024 YR4 currently has 0.28% odds of hitting Earth.
Among the more than 37,000 known large space rocks, it's the only one right now with any chance of hitting Earth anytime soon.
The space rock was spotted late last year and reported on Dec. 27, 2024, to the Minor Planet Center, the official authority for observing and reporting new asteroids, comets and other small bodies in the solar system. The object eventually caught the attention of NASA and other astronomers when it rose on the U.S. Space Agency's Sentry Impact Risk Table, which tracks any known asteroids with a non-zero probability of hitting Earth.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 rates 3 of 10 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, a method for astronomers to categorize and rate the threat of near-Earth objects.
What would happen if YR4 crashed into Earth?
Even though the asteroid is relatively small, it could still be what some are calling a "city killer" because if it were to hit Earth, it could cause significant devastation in a populous area.
“If you put it over Paris or London or New York, you basically wipe out the whole city and some of the environs,” Bruce Betts, chief scientist of The Planetary Society, told AFP
If it did collide with Earth, an asteroid of that size could cause an explosion in the atmosphere or even create an impact crater, according to the Planetary Society. Both possibilities would likely cause devastating damage on the ground, though not enough for it to be a mass extinction event.
The International Asteroid Warning Network put out a list of possible impact locations, which largely includes empty oceans and uninhabited or sparsely populated areas in the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, parts of Africa, the Arabian Sea and South Asia. However, some possible impact locations are densely populated areas.
Fernando Cervantes Jr. is a trending news reporter for Paste BN. Reach him at fernando.cervantes@gannett.com and follow him on X @fern_cerv_.