Will an asteroid hit Earth? Likely not. NASA gives 'all clear' as odds fall to near zero
If you've been losing sleep at night over a certain threatening asteroid dominating the news cycle, it's time to catch up on your rest.
The odds that asteroid 2024 YR4 will crash into Earth in seven years are now so low, they may as well be zero.
The space rock between 130 and 300 feet long has caused quite a stir since astronomers first spotted it late last year on a trajectory bringing it uncomfortably close to Earth in 2032. YR4's discovery even prompted no shortage of comparisons to Apophis, its much larger cousin that gave humanity quite a scare in 2004 when calculations initially found that it had a decent chance of striking Earth in 2029.
For a few weeks, YR4's probability of impact steadily rose and rose, even briefly reaching record levels, before – mercifully – beginning to drop. Now, just as the infamous cruise ship-sized Apophis was eventually ruled out as a threat to Earth, so too has 2024 YR4.
Here's what to know:
Latest calculations put risk of YR4 impact close to zero
YR4's probability of impacting Earth first began to fall last Wednesday when NASA announced the odds had dropped to 1.5%.
NASA then gave the "all clear" in a post Monday on social media site X, announcing that odds of YR4 impacting Earth have fallen to .004% when it passes by on Dec. 22, 2032. In fact, YR4 now has a higher chance of crashing into the moon that year, with odds standing at 1.7%, according to NASA.
"There is no significant potential for this asteroid to impact our planet for the next century," the space agency added in a blog post.
The European Space Agency shared a similar risk assessment of its own Tuesday, finding that the probability was .001%.
The asteroid also now rates as a 0 out of 10 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, a method for astronomers to categorize and rate the threat of near-Earth objects. YR4 peaked at a 3 on the scale, which ranges from 0 (no chance of impact) to 10 (a collision is certain and would cause worldwide devastation.)
What to know about asteroid YR4
Because it's big enough to destroy a city asteroid 2024 YR4 became a source of alarm due to the uncommonly high risk it had of colliding with Earth.
The space rock was spotted late last year and reported on Dec. 27, 2024, to the Minor Planet Center, the official authority for observing and reporting new asteroids, comets and other small bodies in the solar system. The object eventually caught the attention of NASA and other astronomers when it rose on the U.S. Space Agency's Sentry Impact Risk Table, which tracks any known asteroids with a non-zero probability of hitting Earth.
For a time, it was the only object among more than 37,000 known large space rocks with any chance of hitting Earth anytime soon.
Initial projections gave the asteroid little more than a 1% chance of impacting Earth. Those odds steadily increased before peaking at 3.1%.
While those odds may not sound high, that probability of a collision with Earth represented a record for large space rock.
James Webb Space Telescope to study asteroid in March
YR4's infamy meant that astronomers would be paying close attention to it.
And just because it's been dismissed as a threat doesn't mean scientists are forgetting about it.
The asteroid will continue to be visible from Earth through April, giving astronomers some time to gather data with ground-based telescopes. While the asteroid won't again be observable from Earth until June 2028, NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope will be able to study it in March from orbit.
NASA and the European Space Agency are also interested in getting a better look at Apophis before and during its close approach to Earth in 2029.
Though both YR4 and Apophis are no longer a risk to Earth, astronomers maintain that studying them could help the world's space agencies in mounting a planetary defense if the day ever comes that an asteroid does pose a threat.
Protecting Earth from incoming space rocks could look a little like the test NASA pulled off in 2022 when it slammed into an asteroid during its Double Asteroid Redirection Test, or DART. Though the asteroid Dimorphos posed no threat to Earth, the maneuver demonstrated that it could be possible to nudge incoming objects out of harm's way.
As of October, a craft from the ESA is on the way to get an up-close look at the asteroid's remnants.
NASA is additionally working on an asteroid-hunting telescope known as the NEO Surveyor to find near-Earth objects capable of causing significant damage. Now set to launch no earlier than 2027, the telescope is designed to discover 90% of asteroids and comets that are 460 feet in size or larger and come within 30 million miles of Earth’s orbit.
Contributing: Fernando Cervantes Jr., James Powel, Paste BN
Eric Lagatta covers breaking and trending news for Paste BN. Reach him at elagatta@gannett.com