Northern lights forecast: March starts off promising
Although nighttime might be shrinking daily as we move through the year, the chances for seeing the northern lights here in the U.S. will continue to be high as we enter the spring and summer months, experts say.
In fact, while skywatchers had a good chance Tuesday night and another small chance Wednesday night, with the sun continuing to be in its "solar maximum," chances remain strong for seeing the awesome spectacle of the aurora borealis in the months ahead.
A minor geomagnetic storm is forecast for Wednesday March 5, the Space Weather Prediction Center said. Here are the predicted impacts from the storm, including the aurora forecast:
∎ Power systems: Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
∎ Spacecraft operations: Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
∎ Other systems: Migratory animals are affected at this and higher levels; aurora is commonly visible at high latitudes (such as northern Michigan and Maine).
What are solar cycles? What is the solar maximum?
The number of sunspots on the sun's surface changes on a fairly regular cycle, which scientists refer to as the sun's 11-year solar cycle. Sunspot activity, and hence auroral activity, tends to peak every 11 years. This peak is known as the "solar maximum," of which we are current in the midst.
Solar cycles track the activity level of the sun, our nearest star. A cycle is traditionally measured by the rise and fall in the number of sunspots, but it also coincides with increases in solar flares, coronal mass ejections, radio emissions and other forms of space weather.
Sunspots produce solar flares and coronal mass ejections, which create the geomagnetic storms here on Earth that cause the aurora to appear.
Still in the peak of Solar Cycle 25
"We are entering the peak of Solar Cycle 25," Erica Grow Cei, a spokesperson for the National Weather Service, told Paste BN last summer. "This period of heightened activity is expected to last into the first half of 2025," she added.
But as far as when the aurora will actually appear, keep in mind that it can be fickle to forecast. Unlike terrestrial weather, scientists who forecast space weather – which includes the aurora – must rely on observations of the sun, 93-million-miles-away, to make their predictions.
"There are so many uncertainties, it makes it difficult to predict," Bill Murtagh, the program coordinator at the Space Weather Prediction Center, told Paste BN last year. And as hard as it is to forecast weather here on Earth, "we are decades behind the forecast capabilities of our colleagues in meteorology," he admitted, referring to space weather.
Still, follow updates from NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center for all things aurora.