A battle for the soul of the Catholic Church: What's at stake in conclave this week
The most globally representative group of cardinals in history will be weighing such factors as geography, political trends, the candidates' age and fallout from sex abuse scandal.
The Roman Catholic cardinals from around the world gathering May 7 in Vatican City to elect a pope must untangle a complex web of issues as they consider candidates to lead the church's 1.4 billion followers across all seven continents.
The most globally representative group of cardinals in history will be weighing such factors as geography, international political trends, the candidates' age and the lingering fallout from years of controversy surrounding sexual abuse by the clergy.
And they will determine whether the adage "fat pope, thin pope" holds true or whether the next leader of the Catholic Church will continue and expand the reforms that gained traction during the 12-year reign of Pope Francis, who died April 21.
The conclave, which starts May 7, will include a maximum of four voting rounds each day until a candidate obtains a two-thirds majority. A compromise candidate could ultimately emerge, but for the first few rounds of voting the cardinals may each be willing to repeatedly vote for their preferred candidate and see whether he gains momentum.
Progressives have an edge. There are more than 250 members of the College of Cardinals but only 133 of them are under age 80 and otherwise meet the requirements for voting. More than three-quarters of those eligible voters were appointed by Francis.
Francis championed the importance of listening to everyone, from clergy to people in the pews, and he put a particular emphasis on those who have been marginalized. Still, some Catholics believe Francis' effort to build a more welcoming and inclusive church actually fueled division among many of the faithful who have little interest in building bridges with LGBTQ+ Catholics or easing rules for divorce and remarriage within the church.
Disagreements among the cardinals have already emerged in the media. Cardinal Gerhard Ludwig Müller of Germany, a conservative ousted by Francis from a top Vatican position in 2017, is among those who have discussed "division" in the church and called for "unity." Cardinal Michael Czerny of Canada, a close adviser to Francis, has dismissed division as an issue for the conclave.
"Will there be strong disagreements? We’ve already seen competing understandings of the word “unity” from Cardinals Müller and Czerny," Daniel Cosacchi, author of “Great American Prophets: Pope Francis's Models of Christian Life," told Paste BN. "I would suspect that it is unlikely that those two cardinals would be voting for the same person in the first couple of ballots."
New pope likely won't be 'clone of Pope Francis'
Francis DeBernardo, executive director of New Ways Ministry, a national Catholic outreach group advocating for LGBTQ+ acceptance and equity, says he expects a compromise candidate will ultimately draw the white smoke from the Sistine Chapel signaling the selection of a new pope. But he says he is not concerned that the church could backpedal from Francis' efforts.
"I'm expecting that while the new pope will not be a clone of Pope Francis, he will be someone who maintains a great deal of his inclusive approach," DeBernardo told Paste BN. "Even if the cardinals elect a pope who is the opposite of Pope Francis, I think it will be very hard to undo all the good that Pope Francis had on people in the church."
Will the next pope take up immigration issues?
The next pope must navigate the rise of far-right extremism and authoritarianism. Global politics come with the job. Francis was outspoken against the Trump administration's crackdown on immigration and was a fierce critic of the Ukraine-Russia war and the Israel-Hamas war. His successor will either continue the trend of speaking out or recede into the shadows of international political issues.
Within the church, Francis shifted the pastoral focus toward a more hospitable, welcoming attitude championing those who had long felt excluded. He allowed clergy to bless same-sex couples. He eased the annulment process for divorces, promoted flexibility for church participation in second marriages and encouraged allowing those spouses to receive Communion in some cases.
"It would be hard to backpedal on these shifts without causing real alienation," said Susan Reynolds, interim director of Catholic Studies at Emory University in Atlanta whose work has focused on race, culture and migration.
How geography could play a role
There has been an effort to expand the reach of the Vatican to emerging Catholic strongholds in Asia, Africa and elsewhere. Francis, an Argentinian, was the first Latin American pope. By 2050, almost one-third of all Catholics will likely live in Africa, according to the World Christian Database.
Some of those emerging Catholic populations, particularly in Africa, are more conservative than Catholics in Europe and the U.S. Culture and geography could play a role in selecting a pope this time around, says the Rev. James Bretzke, a theology professor at John Carroll University in University Heights, Ohio.
Part of being a world church means that the papacy needs to be seen as "representing the cross-section of the world and not just Europe" or Italy, he said.
"Will there be a power struggle among European cardinals vs. non-Europeans?" Bretzke mused. "Will racial and or ethnic differences be unnamed tensions or biases for or against some of the candidates that are otherwise considered papabile?"
How long will the conclave take?
The conclave will continue until a pope is elected. One vote is expected the first day, then two each morning and two each afternoon until a candidate claims the two-thirds majority. If the electors fail to reach an agreement after three days, a break of up to one day is allowed "for prayer, free discussion among voters and a brief spiritual exhortation."
There is no set time limit for the conclave, but recent conclaves have lasted only a few days. The longest conclave in modern times, in 1903, ended when Pope Pius X was chosen after five days. In the 13th century, the papacy was vacant for almost three years before the election of Gregory X, who tightened up conclave rules.
The Rev. Patrick Flanagan, associate professor of theology and religious studies at St. John’s University in New York, says Gregory X made it clear that conclaves should be focused − and expeditious.
"According to the original prescription, if a pope had not been elected after three days, a cardinal was restricted to one dish at their meals," Flanagan said. "After eight days, only bread, wine and water."
Despite some conflicts over the direction the church should take, most experts don't expect the conclave to stretch beyond a few days. Reynolds noted that Francis was elected in less than two days.
"I would be surprised to see another conclave quite so brief, but I don't anticipate that it will drag on," she said.
Who are the top pope contenders?
Some of the names frequently mentioned as candidates to succeed Francis include Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, 67, of the Philippines, a liberal sometimes referred to as "Francis 2," and Cardinal Peter Erdo, 72, of Hungary, who is considered a favorite among the more conservative cardinals.
There have been 266 popes, and 217 of the have been Italian. Italy has strong contenders again: Matteo Zuppi, 69, a close associate of Francis, and Pietro Parolin, 70, the Vatican Secretary of State who is considered a moderate.
Flanagan says he has seen some of the internet buzz, including reviews of the “elite eight, fabulous four, and the latest May Madness chart." But he emphasized the adage “in pope, out cardinal," meaning anyone who goes into a conclave thinking they will become pope usually exits the conclave still a cardinal.
'After a fat pope, a thin pope' not always true
No one "runs" for pope, and campaigning is a bad idea and prohibited anyway, Reynolds said.
"Anything that feels too much like campaigning is seen as gauche. The old wisdom goes, anyone who acts like they want to be pope shouldn't be pope," she said. "Given the diverse makeup (of the voters), it's hard to predict where the wind will blow."
If the voting drags out, the age of the next pope could become an issue to those who feel compelled to compromise for the sake of a consensus.
"How long do we want this guy in power? This one becomes more important the longer it takes to get consensus," said Melissa Wilde, a sociologist of religion and inequality and chairperson of the Department of Sociology at the University of Pennsylvania.
Cosacchi, the author who serves as vice president for Mission and Ministry at the University of Scranton, said the adage that “after a fat pope, a thin pope” is elected to alter the direction of the church is not always the case. He said it is unclear how it will play out this time around but that there could be a "potential impasse."
Cosacchi says those who could serve as "kingmakers" include older cardinals such as Giovanni Battista Re, 91, of Italy; Stanislaw Dziwisz, 86, of Poland; Francis Arinze, 92, of Nigeria; Angelo Scola, 83, Italy; Oswald Gracias, 80, of India; and Christoph Schönborn, 80, of Austria.
'Ugly' U.S. image hinders chances for American pope
There has never been a pope from the United States, a trend that is likely to continue, Bretzke said. A pope is a diplomat who must be accepted globally, he said.
"These considerations will continue, in my opinion, to prevent any American from being elected the next pope, even if otherwise he might be well qualified," Bretzke said. "America’s image in the world simply is too powerful − and to be blunt, ugly."
The Rev. Brian E. Konkol, vice president and dean of Syracuse University’s Hendricks Chapel, is not a Catholic. But Konkol says the election of a new pope is not only a massive moment for Catholics, it also impacts people of all faiths from all areas of our world.
"I suspect a healthy tension will exist between tradition and innovation, yet ultimately it will be about the person they believe is being called upon by God to serve," Konkol said. "The world is indeed watching and waiting, because whoever emerges will immediately become one of the most influential leaders of our generation.”
Cardinal Timothy Dolan, archbishop of New York, is one of the few cardinals who participated in the election of Francis 12 years ago. Speaking on FOX News Channel’s The Story with Martha MacCallum, he said the cardinals don't view each other as conservatives or progressives but as "believers, as disciples, as brothers."
Dolan said the cardinals do feel pressure when making the decision. But he cited 2013, when the conclave was opened with a prayer from a Franciscan preacher.
"He said, 'Eminences, you're all scared because you have a tough job to elect the next pope.' He said 'let me put your mind at ease. It's easy. The Holy Spirit has already chosen the next pope. Your job is to find out who it is.'
"We all chuckled and said, 'Hey, that's kind of nice to hear,'" Dolan said.