What are the odds? As two favorites emerge, longtime practice of conclave betting thrives

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The wagers fly as the highest-ranking leaders of the Catholic Church converge in Rome to pick the next successor to St. Peter's throne. Bettors play the numbers as bookmakers set odds like it's the ides of March Madness. "The people of Italy are in a state of excitement that is indescribable," the screaming headlines exclaim.

That was in 1878, but it could well have been today. Betting on the pope's election is a pastime that goes back at least 600 years, and while it may not be exactly legal in the United States, bets are being laid down in Britain and beyond as the conclave to pick Pope Francis’ successor gets set to begin on May 7.

“Gamblers will seek to place wagers of any type, whether it’s football or popes,” said Bill Ordine, author of “Fantasy Sports, Real Money: The Unlikely Rise of Daily Fantasy" and a now-retired former national writer for Gambling.com. "This is a lot harder to pick than, say, the number one pick in the NFL draft."

Papal betting is a gray area in the world of gambling. You can't plop down an official bet at a casino in Las Vegas and there are few if any U.S.-based web sites that will accept bets on the next pope. But there are numerous sites that spell out the odds. From that point, it's up to people to figure out how to place a bet. Many times in the U.S., the bets are informal, made with poker buddies or neighbors.

R. Andrew Chesnut, chair in Catholic studies at Virginia Commonwealth University in Richmond, said betting on the pope is part of "a larger culture of betting on everything. You can even bet on the deaths of celebrities. Everything’s become bettable these days, so it’s no surprise that this would, too. It’s something of interest to billions.”

That doesn't mean the church doesn't consider the practice bad sport. As Father Paul Keller of the Diocese of Columbus recently wrote in the Catholic Times: "It’s not smart to place bets on who the next pope will or should be. It is not only indecorous, it’s indecent and shameful, because it compares a most holy office and man with a horserace or roulette wheel."

Nevertheless, as the Sistine Chapel gathering of papal electors approaches, pundits and punters alike are weighing in on their potential choice.

Will it be Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, the former archbishop of Manila dubbed the “Asian Francis,” who would be the first Asian pope in history? Or will it be Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the longtime Vatican diplomat who could mark a compromise between Catholic progressives and conservatives?

Could it be former contender Peter Erdo, the theological conservative from Hungary? Or American Cardinal Joseph Tobin, the archbishop of Newark, New Jersey? Will the next pope be Italian, or might he represent the growing Catholic stronghold of Africa?

Oddsmakers are closely monitoring the shifting sands, with sites such as Britain’s Online Betting Guide offering updates and capsules of the front runners. With the passing of Pope Francis on April 21, the site noted, Tagle and Parolin emerged as the early favorites, with Parolin moving into the lead and maintaining it ever since.

“The move to make Parolin the new favorite reflects both his deep roots within the Vatican and his status as a diplomatic heavyweight,” wrote Josh Ashton, the site’s senior news editor and current affairs betting expert. “While Tagle still has strong support, bettors may now be looking for someone who can unify more traditional elements within the Church.”

Along with who the next pope might be, bettors can wager on what name the new pontiff will pick and what nation he will represent. While Italy is deemed the most likely individual country from which the next pope will originate, the favorite among oddsmakers is currently “a country that has never had a pope,” with a 60% likelihood.

“I’m old enough to remember that if the guy wasn’t Italian, he wasn’t going to be the pope,” Ordine said.

More than 200 of the Catholic Church’s 266 popes have been Italian in origin, but the last several papal elections have seen the church buck that norm.

In 1978, Cardinal Karol Wojtyla of Poland became Pope John Paul II; in 2005, Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger of Germany became Pope Benedict XVI; and in 2013, Jorge Mario Bergoglio of Argentina became Pope Francis, the church’s first pontiff from the Americas.

Now, along with Italy, this cycle’s papabile – those considered most “pope-able” – includes front-runners from Africa and Asia. As of May 1, according to British bookmaker William Hill, Italy’s Parolin is a 9/4 favorite, followed by Tagle of the Philippines at 3/1. Ghanian prelate Peter Turkson and Matteo Zuppi, the Italian archbishop of Bologna, follow at 6/1.

“Everybody thinks they know about sports, but who knows about picking popes?” Ordine said. “It’s not an event about which a lot of people bring a lot of knowledge to. Like, who’s thinking, ‘Which of these cardinals has the most ecclesiastic chops to be the pope?’ It’s the kind of wager people would make lightheartedly. You’re basically throwing darts.”

Breeding a climate of 'rumor and turmoil'

Historians say papal gambling dates back at least to the 1400s and was rampant in 16^th-century Rome. And the bets weren't just about papal elections, either.

A paper published in 2015 by the Center for Gaming Research at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas notes: "For example, throughout the entire first half of 1584, Rome remained stirred by the possibility that Gregory XIII would make an important trip to his hometown of Bologna. Brokers took bets on whether he would go or not, when he would go, and for how long he would go."

The era foretold the betting-obsessed culture of today, wrote John Hunt, the paper’s author and an assistant professor of history and political science at Utah Valley University in Orem. Romans even wagered on women’s pregnancies, with sensali, or brokers, seeking out local expectant mothers and underwriting bets on what the sex of the child would be.

Vatican happenings were no different, as Romans put money down not only on conclave selections but cardinal appointments and papal activities as well. In 1588, "Brokers also took bets on whether Sixtus V wouldmake a trip to Loreto to visit its popular Marian shrine."

A Venetian ambassador’s report in 1550 described what could be called an early instance of insider trading after the death of Pope Paul III, with the situation “more than clear that the merchants are very well informed about the state of the poll, and that the cardinals’ attendants in the conclave go partners with them in wagers.”

That’s likely why cardinals refrained from denouncing the practice despite the “rumor and turmoil” it stirred up, Hunt wrote: “On one hand, they could condemn the pernicious effects it had on the election; on the other, many actively participated in the wagering.”

By 1591, the newly installed Pope Gregory XIV had had enough of the cardinal sinning, banning the practice under penalty of excommunication. The edict was abrogated in 1918, according to canon law expert Edward Peters of Detroit’s Sacred Heart Major Seminary.

Anyway, such threats only served to push the practice underground, at least for a few centuries. A National Bureau of Economic Research paper published in 2008 noted press coverage of betting activity around Vatican conclaves in 1878, 1903 and 1922.

With the passing of Pope John Paul II in 2005, “the chance to bet on the papal election seemed to catch the imagination of the whole world,” Irish bookmaker Paddy Power told the BBC, calling it “the biggest non-sports betting market of all time.”

In 2013, Pope Benedict XVI resigned his papacy citing age and ailing health. Ghana’s Peter Turkson, the initial favorite at 11-4, ultimately saw the throne of St. Peter go to a 33-1 longshot, Jorge Mario Bergoglio of Argentina.

“This is one of the most unpredictable markets in betting,” wrote Online Betting Guide's Ashton. “Surprises can and do happen during a conclave.”

Conclave betting options limited in U.S.

Compared to the United States, sports gambling is much more accepted in the United Kingdom and continental Europe, where the activity is much more entrenched, Ordine said.

“European sportsbooks are way out in front in terms of maturation of that industry,” he said. That has begun to change: In 2018, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the 1992 Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PASPA) banning sports betting outside of Nevada, opening the door for sites such as FanDuel and DraftKings.

“Betting in generally has become more culturally acceptable and more in the mainstream than it was when Pope Francis was selected,” Ordine said. “The rise of online sports betting has done a lot to change the view of gambling in America.”

But while papal elections offers “the patina of sports gambling,” similar to predicting the top pick in the NFL draft, “these types of events are not the kind of proposition that casinos take bets on,” Ordine said.  “You can’t gamble on elections in this country.”

According to Sportsbook Review, a sportsbook and betting analysis website, betting on the papal conclave is among events that “fall squarely outside the scope of regulated sports betting,” an area restricted to athletic competition as well as certain awards and entertainment-related situations.

Jim Strode, an associate professor of business at Ohio University in Athens, said while pro sports leagues have rules to prevent information leaks, “states that allow for sports betting do not include betting on any markets outside of sports, as there are so many uncertainties and potential inside-information-sharing that cannot be controlled.”

That’s not to say speculators are necessarily out of luck, though the options are not without controversy. Prediction market platforms such as Kalshi and crypto-based Polymarket act more as betting exchanges for current events rather than licensed sportsbooks; users purchase contracts, similar to buying stocks, instead of making wagers.

Both sites have made inroads in the U.S. after a federal appeals court ruled in October that Kalshi could allow Americans to bet on the 2024 election, though some states have since struck back with cease-and-desist letters. Meanwhile, sports business site Sportico quoted the American Gaming Association as saying such platforms “appear to circumvent state regulatory frameworks.”

Still, Ordine thinks most wagering on the conclave is likely to happen informally among friends, similar to the squares people play for the Super Bowl.

“It’ll be next to nothing, relatively speaking,” Ordine said. “In terms of comparison to the Super Bowl or March Madness where billions of dollars are at stake, this is really going to be nickels and dimes. With the Super Bowl, people are even betting on the color of Gatorade poured on the coach at the end of the game. Picking the pope is not going to be anywhere near that.”

In 2013, Religion News Service conducted a “Sweet Sistine” bracket competition that let readers choose the favorite of 16 top candidates, none of which was Pope Francis.

Which just goes to show it’s anyone’s guess.

“It’s the type of wager people can make without investing a lot of ego into it,” Ordine said. “When you’re betting on football games, you’re putting your knowledge on the line and when you don’t do well it’s a reflection on you. But putting a couple of dollars down on the next pope – it’s not as if you’ve suffered a dent in your ego if you’re wrong.”

Kenneth Pennington, professor emeritus of ecclesiastical and legal history at the Catholic University of America in Washington, D.C., said if he were a betting man, he would lay odds on Erdo, of Hungary.

“He had dinner at our home in D.C. a few years ago, and I would love to brag about that,” Pennington said. “But he is a very long shot.”

Another trending candidate has been Cardinal Robert Sarah of Nigeria, a favorite of American conservatives whose odds are listed as 8-1 by William Hill Sportsbook.

However, Chesnut, of Virginia Commonwealth, doubts Sarah or any other major conservative has much chance given that Pope Francis, a liberal reformer, handpicked 80% of the conclave’s voting cardinals.

“Twelve years ago, I was the only major papal observer who called (that it would be) a Latin American pope,” Chesnut said. “I even got hate mail: ‘What does Chesnut know?’ But actually, I thought it was going to be a Brazilian.”