Earth's 5-year forecast is in: Brace for extreme heat

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Human-caused global warming will continue to bake the Earth over the next several years, experts from the United Nations and the United Kingdom said in a May 28 report, noting that "global climate predictions show temperatures are expected to continue at or near record levels in the next five years."

Specifically, there is an 80% chance that at least one of the next five years will see record heat, with a high likelihood that average warming will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial levels, according to the report by the World Meteorological Organization, which is the U.N. weather agency, and the U.K. Met Office.

“We have just experienced the ten warmest years on record," said WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett, in a statement. "Unfortunately, this WMO report provides no sign of respite over the coming years, and this means that there will be a growing negative impact on our economies, our daily lives, our ecosystems and our planet.”

Arctic warming is also predicted to rise at more than three times the global average.

"Every additional fraction of a degree of warming drives more harmful heatwaves, extreme rainfall events, intense droughts, melting of ice sheets, sea ice, and glaciers, heating of the ocean, and rising sea levels," the WMO said in a statement.

Climate report by the numbers

• 80% chance that at least one of the next five years will exceed 2024 as the warmest on record.
• 86% chance that at least one of next five years will be more than 1.5 C (2.7 F) above the 1850-1900 average.
• 70% chance that five-year average warming for 2025-2029 will be more than 1.5 C (2.7 F).
• Arctic warming predicted to continue to outstrip global average.

More people at risk

Last year, the hottest year on record, saw the first breach of the 2015 Paris climate agreement, which committed countries to avoid global warming of more than 1.5 C.

From this year until the end of 2029, the mean near-surface temperature globally is forecast to be between 1.2 C and 1.9 C (2.2 F and 3.4 F) higher than preindustrial levels of the years 1850-1900, the WMO said, adding that this would fuel more extreme weather.

“With the next five years forecast to be more than 1.5 degrees C warmer than preindustrial levels on average, this will put more people than ever at risk of severe heat waves, bringing more deaths and severe health impacts unless people can be better protected from the effects of heat," Richard Betts, head of climate impacts research at the UK Met Office and a professor at the University of Exeter, told The Associated Press. "Also we can expect more severe wildfires as the hotter atmosphere dries out the landscape."

Arctic warmth is soaring

In the Arctic, the above-average projected warming will accelerate ice melt in the Arctic and northwest Pacific Ocean.

The report said Arctic warming was predicted to be more than 3½ times the global average, at 2.4 C (4.3 F) above the recent average temperature over the next five winters.

Contributing: Reuters